Thunder vs pacers: how a small NBA market final affects the net profit of the league

New York – While the Indiana Pacers celebrated on their original courtyard on Saturday evening, after having made their way in the NBA final, conventional wisdom was that a collective groan died at the head of the League Manhattan at the same time.

The Pacers’ victory meant that two small market teams – Indianapolis are the 25th largest media market in the country and Oklahoma City is n ° 47 – would now face each other during the renowned league event. Here is Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams as the four horsemen of the Apocalypse of evaluations.

But what happens if these concerns (or worrying trollings) are not right? Or not precise enough, at least.

There are many different parts of the League company which will determine if the NBA will take a financial hit with this final match, and the television ratings are part of it. Sales of goods, ticket revenues and sponsorships are among others. Although the NBA would have benefited from a confrontation in the final, including the New York Knicks or the Los Angeles Lakers, for example, the drop in income that it will have to have two of its smallest market teams on its largest scene is probably smaller than perceived.

“There is really no direct impact between ratings and financial success, certainly in the short term,” said a former NBA senior executive. “If you have bad grades for the next decade, it limits your television rights. But I don’t think anyone in the NBA is worried about it at the moment because television income is guaranteed.”

The NBA will undoubtedly welcome less money in the sales of goods with the Pacers and the Thunder than if the Knicks had advanced from the final of the Eastern Conference or if a strain of the hamstrings had not shot Stephen Curry and the Warriors before they could do another long eliminatory race. The base of Thunder fans, although strong and powerful, is also smaller than many of his peers. Oklahoma’s state has about four million people, less than half of New York.

Ticket sales income should be lower than these games are held elsewhere. The average prices of seats at Madison Square Garden eclipse those of almost all other places. The cheapest ticket for match 5 of the Western Conference final in Oklahoma City – $ 172 – was the most expensive ticket in the history of the franchise, According to TickpickAnd it costs less than half of the cheapest seat At MSG for match 5 of the Eastern Conference final.

A league source said the Knicks could attract some $ 10 million in a conference final match. Although the exact distribution of this income is not known, part of it is shared with the league and the union of players as income-related income.

Although these figures can and fluctuate according to the teams and cities that make the final, the television notes, which obtain a disproportionate part of the attention of the public, can actually have the least importance to determine if the NBA does or does not do well this month.

Where land ratings ultimately have no impact on the short -term results of the NBA, according to those working in the NBA and television industries. The League signed its current television agreement in 2014 and what it receives this season is a fixed payment. What he receives next season, regardless of the number of people watching the Pacers-Thinder, is already settled. The League has signed its next 11 -year -old media rights agreements with NBC, ESPN and Amazon, for a total of $ 75 billion last summer.

They will not change if the sub-performation finals and the media price companies in a few years of rating for the finals when they sign long-term contracts.

“The NBA is not on the hook,” said a long -standing frame of television. “This is the network problem. Does everyone want a Knicks-Lakers final? Of course.”

There is no doubt that expectations are not high for notes in this series, which will be broadcast on ABC. According to Sports Media Media Watch, from last year’s final reached an average of 11.3 million viewers per game, which was the lowest since 2007, excluding the seasons of COVID-19 impacted, according to Sports Media Watch. The average notes for the NBA finals have been a constant drop in the last decade, which has coincided with the cord cup and fewer houses with cable television. In 2018, the last of the Cavaliers-Warriors finals was seen by an average of 17.6 million viewers; The Celtics-Warriors 2022 finals reached an average of 12.4 million.

This year’s teams will probably not help reverse the trend. Oklahoma City is the third smallest media market in the League, ahead of Memphis and New Orleans. The Pacers play on the ninth smallest media market in the NBA.

The NBA has experienced strong notes this qualifying series, undoubtedly supported by a deep eliminatory by the Knicks. Match 3 of the Knicks-Pacers series was match 3 of the most watched Eastern Conference final since 2015, According to Sports Media WatchAnd this series provided three of the four largest public this spring.

There was no final comparable to it, where the two teams were located in cities that were not one of the 20 largest media markets in the country. When the Thunder arrived for the last time in the final, Oklahoma City was the 41st largest media market, but Miami was 16th. The San Antonio Spurs regularly ranked in the mid -1930s for the size of the media market, but also played much larger market teams. The finals with the Spurs or the Thunder, the two smallest markets to go around the championship, plunged average audiences compared to the finals in the years preceding and after their game.

A variable that can also have an important influence on the notes – perhaps even more, according to the old NBA executive – is the star power. The finals notes did not suffer when LeBron James was involved, whatever the average size market in which he played, Miami or Cleveland. After years of finals with James and Curry, the League has seen more recent and younger stars play for a title. These players, although well known to pure and pure and NBA, were not as well known occasional fans at the time.

In this way, the League hopes that it can exchange short -term pain for a longer -term advantage. While the finals have suffered in recent years when new stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić won championships, the League saw an advantage afterwards. Milwaukee Bucks national television matches experienced a 21% increase in the audience compared to the previous season the year after winning the title. Denver Nuggets Games experienced a 32% increase in the season after the team won its title in 2023.

The NBA hopes that this series can make Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP of the 2024-2025 league and Tyrese Haliburton in familiar names.

There is one thing on which the NBA and Disney, which has ABC, can get along: a longer series benefits everyone. This is where the teams, the league and the networks earn money.

Each incremental match will make each team, as well as the league and the players, thanks to its income sharing plan, more money. ABC should do even more.

The networks sell the announcements that are broadcast during the playoffs in advance. They estimate the cost of these announcements, on the basis of the projected notes. If the notes for the finals are lower than expected, they will offer commercial time to make advertisers.

But networks generally sell advertisements only in advance for the first four to five games in a series of seven games, said the television director. “If you get a match 7, all the money goes directly to the results,” said the executive.

The first round is essential for networks because they have the most available games. The same goes for the second round series. If the finals take place for a long time, ABC is sure to benefit: the longer a series, the more viewers connect. The average viewer for a Thunder-Pacers series could drop by 10% compared to last year if only four games, according to a person with estimates from the audience.

If a final spends more than four games, the last game is always the most seen game in this series. A seventh game can double the audience of the opening match, as did for the Celtics-Lakers in 2010. Match 7 of Cavaliers-Warriors in 2016 attracted 12 million more viewers than match 1.

This month, the only ones to root a scan will be the fans.

(Photo of Tyrese Haliburton defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Ron Hoskins / NBAE via Getty Images)