Three points to remember from the MLB extensions wave: how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reached $ 500 million

There is nothing that excites a journalist as an agreement meeting beyond his initial deadline. The extension of the $ 500 million dollars contract in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., of $ 500 million with the Blue Jays, occurred almost two months after the deadline of Guerrero to end the talks at the start of spring training.

He closed another week of important extensions through sport, Ketel Marte, Jackson Merrill and Kristian Campbell also signing long -term pacts. Let’s decompose it.

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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. reaches his brand

Extensions work for young players because a player gives up the potential for larger earnings to mitigate the risk of failure before the free agency, whether by an injury, an underperformance or something else. If you, for example, Kristian Campbell, you take 60 million dollars guaranteed now when you could have done more because there is also the possibility that you would have done much less. The team takes this risk in exchange for a discount on the player if the scenarios of the best cases take place.

But as the player approaches the free agency, the dynamic opposite. The player’s potential revenues are safer, and it is the team that may lose in the meantime. Put the team in a sufficiently desperate situation, and the player can do even more than he could have on the free market.

Guerrero had just brandished this exact lever effect to reach the desired $ 500 million bar.

Its last push of around $ 450 million to $ 500 million recalls the extension of Francisco Lindor in 2021 with the dishes. At this point, the dishes were like these Blue Jays, seeking to restore credibility with their fans base by making a great financial commitment. Lindor was able to push the dishes beyond their “best final offer” to establish a new record for a curl stop.

The Guerrero agreement has an average annual value of $ 35.7 million.

Even when adjusting inflation, it is the second AAV for a first base player. In February, I broke the contracts for the first basic players in three levels (adjustment for inflation):

• ~ 40 million dollars per season (Miguel Cabrera)
• $ 30 at $ 32 million per season (Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis and Paul Goldschmidt)
• ~ 25 million dollars per season (Matt Olson, Eric Hosmer)

Guerrero settles behind Cabrera but ahead of everyone – a real victory for him given the way in which his history is part of this cohort. Add in that he also received the longest contract of this four -year group, and this is an unanswered affair for Guerrero who will be considered a reference for other agents who will soon be free.

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Ketel Marte locks in her future

In general, accepting an extension with a veteran long before it was ready to strike the free agency is not advised. You don’t know how even the established players will age in their thirties, this is how tigers and phillies ended up with bad offers for Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Howard, respectively.

These transactions were two years earlier; This one with Marte is mainly four years earlier, adding his seasons from 35 years to 37 years old to the extension he had initially signed with Arizona in 2022. It is a dynamic that we have not seen for a veteran since the second extension of Evan Longoria with the Rays (signed in 2013, from 2017). Longoria only played one of the six seasons of this extension with Tampa Bay.

It seems fairly safe, compared to some of the others. While the extensions of Cabrera and Howard were not carried out on the free market, this one to hammer the fact. Diamondbacks guarantee an additional four years and $ 67.5 million. (In reality, Arizona was very likely to exercise its 2028 club option on Marte, and therefore New Deal adds $ 57.5 million in the following three seasons).

Diamondbacks therefore assess these seasons from 35 years old at the age of 37 to just over $ 19 million a year. It is 5 million dollars less that José Altuve obtains per season in a five -year agreement which has just started at the age of 35. (During the signing of last spring, the extension of Altuve started at the start of this season, just through the second goal). The Marte Agreement is slightly higher than the way Ben Zobrist was assessed as a free agent entering his 35 -year season in 2016, when he signed for four years and about $ 18 million today.

In addition, the faith of the Diamondbacks in Marte has already paid serious dividends. This is the third extension between both sides. Arizona extended Marte in 2018 when he was five years from the free agency and again in 2022, when he was three years old. He rewarded this belief each time.

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Jackson Merrill gives a hand to the paadres

Of all the extensions signed in the past two weeks, that of Merrill confused me the most. It is probably not a surprise: last month, I suggested that it could earn $ 375 million over 15 years, which represents much more than $ 135 million over nine years.

It seems that a model for the Merrill agreement, which begins in 2026, was the extension of Ronald Acuña Jr. with Atlanta. This agreement bought years of acuña arbitration and four years of free agent (if its club options are recovered) for $ 134 million. This agreement bought Merrill years of arbitration and four years of free agent for $ 135 million. To be fair, there are quite simple mechanical stairs that could land in Merrill $ 30 million additional. There is also a club option at $ 21 million, which could become a player option with an MVP finish among the first.

Since the Acuña agreement, the extension market has become much more lucrative, the transactions signed by Spencer Strider, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. pushing the market forward for pre-arbitration players. Merrill and Rodríguez each compiled 5.3 victories above the replacement (according to Fangraphs) in their recruited seasons. The Rodríguez contract guarantees it $ 209.3 million; Merrill leads $ 204 million.

Of course, the signing of a nine -figure agreement after a season of major leagues is nothing to sneeze, and Merrill has spoken of its link with the city and the organization as a great reason why it wanted to remain in the long term.

(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is next to Shortstop Bo Bichette: Cary Edmondson / USA TODAY SPORTS)