For the first time in decades, it feels like the men’s French Open is truly wide open.
Rafael Nadal has been running this tournament for 20 years.
He has a 112-3 record at Roland Garros and won 14 titles between 2005 and 2022, but Nadal is about to turn 38 and has been dealing with injury problems for almost two years.
Barring anything unforeseen, this will be the Spaniard’s last French Open, and he is not expected to make a deep run, especially since he drew against Alexander Zverev, the fourth seed, in the first round.
And it’s not just Nadal’s status that opens this draw.
Novak Djokovic has not been himself in 2024, Carlos Alcaraz’s form has been shaky and Jannik Sinner, unplayable in the first months of the season, is also suffering from injuries.
All of this should add up to the most chaotic French Open we’ve seen in some time. This makes for excellent bets.
Favorites with the most value
Casper Ruud (12/1, DraftKings)
Consecutive finalist at Roland Garros and world number 7, Ruud seems a little undervalued on the Paris futures market. Ruud is in good form this season on clay – he won Barcelona, was runner-up in Monte Carlo and is in the final in Geneva – and has the advantage of beating anyone on clay.
With this resume, one would expect Ruud to be priced in the single digits, but he drifted a bit due to a tough draw.
Ruud has a tricky opponent in the first round (and another likely one, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, in the second round) and will likely face Djokovic in the quarterfinals, so this route gives us a good opportunity to back a player who has had success at the Roland Garros.
Great buy
Daniel Medvedev (32/1, FanDuel)
The betting market appears to leave Medvedev for dead at Roland Garros due to his history in this tournament.
This would be a logical thing to do if Medvedev was considered one of the favorites, but this number is ridiculous considering he is the No. 4 player in the world and is not just a hobbyist on clay.
He’s been upset five times at Roland Garros and that’s not good, but he went to the fourth round in 2022 and was a quarterfinalist in 2021, so it’s not like he’s fading on earth beaten.
While most people will point out Medvedev’s vulnerability at this tournament, bettors should take this as a good opportunity to buy cheap on a player who has won a Grand Slam and made the final five other times .
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Hubert Hurkacz (100/1, FanDuel)
Despite being ranked 9th in the world, Hurkacz will be friendless in the betting market at Roland Garros, even at triple-digit prices.
And while his 6-6 record and three first-round exits at the French Open aren’t pretty, he has a trip to Round 4 in 2022 and Round 3 in 2023.
Those still aren’t eye-popping results, but when you combine them with his 11-3 record on clay this season, they suggest an improving player on the surface.
More importantly, Hurkacz earned a superb draw.
His path to the quarterfinals, where he will likely have to upset Sinner, is within reach and with Sinner’s injury issues, there is no guarantee he will be there waiting for Hurkacz next week.
New York Post
