A recent study suggests that reducing processed meat consumption by one-third could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the United States over a decade. Researchers from the University of Edinburgh and the University of North Carolina developed a simulation tool to analyze the health impacts of reducing consumption of processed and unprocessed red meat. The study found significant potential health benefits, including reduced cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer, particularly among white and middle-income men. The research, which calls for further study due to the lack of data on unprocessed red meat, highlights a win-win situation for health and environmental sustainability.
A study suggests that reducing processed meat consumption by about a third in the United States could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes over a decade, as well as significantly reduce heart disease and colorectal cancer cases. The researchers used microsimulation to analyze the impact of reducing processed and unprocessed red meat consumption on multiple health outcomes.
Cutting processed meat consumption by about a third could help prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the United States within a decade, a study finds.
Reducing processed meat consumption by 30 percent among American adults — the equivalent of about 10 slices of bacon per week — would also reduce the number of cases of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer by tens of thousands, the researchers say.
A team from the University of Edinburgh’s Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, in collaboration with the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has developed a simulation tool to estimate the health impacts of reducing consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat.
While many studies have linked high processed meat consumption to chronic disease, few have assessed the impact on multiple health conditions. Some previous research also suggests that unprocessed red meat may contribute to chronic disease risk, but the evidence is still limited.
Simulation results
The researchers used data from a national health survey from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to create a simulated, representative sample of the U.S. adult population — a so-called microsimulation.
Their microsimulation is the first to estimate the effects of reducing processed meat and unprocessed red meat consumption – by 5 to 100 percent – on multiple health outcomes in the United States.
The team assessed the impact of changes in meat consumption on the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer and death in adults. Effects were assessed in the entire population and separately by age, sex, household income and ethnicity.
In addition to preventing more than 350,000 cases of diabetes, a 30% reduction in processed meat consumption would result in 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer over a decade, the researchers say.
In this scenario, white men and those with annual household incomes between $25,000 and $55,000 enjoy the greatest health benefits.
Comparison of meat types
The researchers also analyzed the impacts of reducing consumption of unprocessed red meat alone and reducing consumption of both processed meat and unprocessed red meat.
A 30 percent reduction in consumption of these two products resulted in 1,073,400 fewer cases of diabetes, 382,400 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and 84,400 fewer cases of colorectal cancer.
Reducing unprocessed red meat consumption by 30% – which would mean eating about one fewer beef burger per week – led to a reduction of more than 732,000 cases of diabetes. It also led to a reduction of 291,500 cases of cardiovascular disease and 32,200 cases of colorectal cancer.
The finding that more cases of illness were prevented by reducing consumption of unprocessed red meat compared to processed meat is partly due to the fact that the average daily consumption of unprocessed red meat is higher than that of processed meat, at 47 g per day versus 29 g per day, respectively.
Because less is known about the effect of unprocessed red meat consumption on chronic disease risk, the team says these estimates should be interpreted with caution and further research is needed.
Professor Lindsay Jaacks, Personal Chair in Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh and one of the study’s authors, said: “Reducing meat consumption has been recommended by national and international organisations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the Climate Change Committee here in the UK and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our research shows that these dietary changes could also have significant health benefits in the US, so it’s a clear win-win for people and the planet.”
Reference: “Estimated effects of reducing processed meat consumption and reducing unprocessed red meat consumption on the incidence of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the United States: a microsimulation study” by Joe Kennedy, Peter Alexander, Lindsey Smith Taillie, and Lindsay M Jaacks, July 2024, The Lancet Planetary health.
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9
The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust.
