“There is no alternative to Loukhenko”

There are moments in history when countries are plagued by electoral fever.

January 2025 in Belarus is not part of it.

Browse Minsk and you will not see large advertising panels promoting the portraits of candidates.

There is little campaign.

The gray sky and the melted snow of Belarusian winter add to a feeling of dominant inactivity.

And inevitable.

The outcome of the 2025 presidential election is no doubt. Alexandre Loukachenko, formerly nicknamed “the last dictator in Europe”, who has directed Belarus with an iron fist for over 30 years, will be declared a winner and will obtain a seventh term.

His supporters describe this as an “Belarusian democracy” exercise. His opponents Reject the process as a “farce”.

Even Mr. Loukachenko himself claims not to be interested in the process.

“I am not the electoral campaign. I don’t have time,” the Belarusian manager said this week to workers at the Minsk automotive factory.

The workers gave him a gift: an ax to cut wood.

“I will try it before the elections,” promised Mr. Loukachenko, to enthusiastic applause.

Four and a half years ago, in another company, the Belarusian manager received a much colder welcome.

A week after the 2020 presidential election, Alexandre Loukachenko visited the Minsk wheel tractors factory. A disclosed video shows him being hué and heckled by workers. They shouted “” go! Are you going! “”.

In 2020, the official result of the elections – 80 % for Mr. Loukachenko – had sparked anger and huge demonstrations throughout the country. The Belarusians went down to the street to accuse their chief of having stolen their votes and the elections.

During the brutal police repression that followed, thousands of anti -government demonstrators and criticism were arrested. Finally, the wave of repression turned off the demonstrations and, with the help of Russia, Mr. Loukachenko clung to power.

The United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States refuse to recognize it as a legitimate president of Belarus.

The most fervent opponents (and potential rivals) of Alexandre Loukhenko are either in prison or forced to exile.

This is why the European Parliament adopted this week a resolution calling for the EU to reject the next presidential election as a “imposture” and stressing that the electoral campaign took place “in a severe repression environment that does not even succeed not to meet expectations ”. minimum standards for democratic elections ”.

I remember Interview Alexandre Loukachenko last OctoberThe day the date of the presidential election was announced.

“How can these elections be free and democratic if opposition leaders are in prison or abroad?” I asked.

“Do you really know who are the leaders of the opposition?” Mr. Loukachenko retaliated.

“An opposition is a group of people who must serve the interests, at least, of a small number of people in the country. Where are these leaders you are talking about? Are you wakeing up!”

Alexandre Loukachenko is not the only candidate. There are four others. But they look more like spoilers than serious challengers.

I have been driving four hours from Minsk to meet one of them. Sergei Syrankov is the leader of the Belarusian Communist Party. In the city of Visbsk, I attend one of its country events. In a large room, Mr. Syrankov addresses a small audience, flanked by the emblem of his party, the sickle and the hammer.

His campaign slogan is unusual to say the least: “Not in place of Loukhenko, but with Loukachenko!

He is a presidential candidate who openly supports his opponent.

“There is no alternative to Alexandre Loukachenko as the leader of our country,” said Syrankov. “So we participate in the elections with the presidential team.”

“Why do you think there is no alternative?” I ask.

“Because Loukachenko is a man of the people, a man of the ground, who did everything so that we do not have the kind of chaos they know in Ukraine.”

“You fight yourself for power, but you support another candidate. It is … unusual”, I suggest.

“I am sure that Alexandre Loukachenko will win an overwhelming victory. But even if he wins and not me, the Communists will be the winners,” replied Mr. Syrankov.

“The main communist in our country is our head of state. Loukachenko still has his former member card of the Soviet Communist Party.”

Oleg Gaidukevich, leader of the right-class liberal-democratic party of Biélorussia, is also on the ballot. Neither do he run to win.

“If someone dares to suggest that the result of the elections is not known, it is a liar,” said Mr. Gaidukevich.

“It is obvious that Loukachenko will win. He has a huge dimension … We will fight to strengthen our positions and prepare the next elections.”

The criticisms of Mr. Loukachenko reject the assertion that his popularity is “massive”. But there is no doubt that he has support.

At the limits of Vitebsk is the small town of Oktyabrskaya. By discussing people there, I detect a concern about the risk that a change of leader can cause instability.

“I want a stable salary, the stability of the country,” said the welder Sergei. “Other candidates make promises, but may not keep them. I want to keep what I have.”

“The situation is very tense today,” said Zenaida. “There are perhaps other people worthy of power. But the time that a young leader puts their feet under the office, establish important ties with other countries and with their own people, it will take a lot of time .

“God preserves us to finish like Ukraine.”

In Belarus, there is today the fear of instability, the fear of the unknown and the fear of the government. All of this plays in favor of Alexandre Loukachenko.