I’m writing from Israel, where the country is bracing for a wave of drone attacks from Iran tonight.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned around 11 p.m. that at least 100 drones had been launched. This was followed by an announcement from Iran’s official news agency that ballistic missiles had also been launched.
Israel has been expecting Iranian strikes since it carried out an April 1 airstrike that killed commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Damascus.
Since then, there has been some apprehension on the streets, but daily life has continued more or less normally, although this evening the IDF updated instructions for the population on the precautions to take.
Meanwhile, the IDF has strengthened its air defense over the past ten days, including calling in specialized reservists. Israel has the best missile defenses in the world and will do its best to shoot down most or all weapons before reaching Israeli airspace. However, this will not be easy to achieve, with large swarms of drones preceded or followed by missiles.
The commander of US forces in the Middle East visited Israel in recent days, in coordination with the IDF, and US forces will help Israel intercept drones, including by providing airborne early warning systems. Israel’s other allies could also provide support, and the Israeli prime minister specifically thanked Britain and France for their support.
There is also a significant threat from Lebanon, where Iranian proxy Hezbollah has approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, they have fired rockets and drones into the Israeli border area almost daily. It is possible that Hezbollah will launch an intensive barrage to coincide with the arrival of weapons from Iran, aiming to overwhelm air defenses. .
Israel is preparing
Israel will have no choice but to respond to this Iranian attack, as any country would. Of course, the IDF has also prepared for this, perhaps by striking military targets in Iran and other countries from which missiles or drones are launched.
While the United States sought to prevent Iran from attacking Israel through intensive diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration will likely try to pressure Israel to limit its retaliation, in other words, to he defuses the situation. However, even if this attack inflicts limited damage, Israel should respond hard – perhaps with even greater force – to deter further attacks.
While direct hostilities with Iran are unlikely to extend beyond air attacks and possibly a naval conflict, a major attack by Hezbollah could well lead to all-out war in Lebanon, which has been contemplated since October.
This latest development in the Middle East shows that it is not just a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. The war in Gaza was initiated by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both Iranian proxies, and was joined from the start, in the form of attacks on Israel, by Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen , in Iraq and the West Bank.
The ayatollahs have for many years declared their intention to eradicate the Jewish state and have built a “ring of fire” around Israel to achieve this, while working on a nuclear weapons program.
Regardless of how this conflict evolves, Israel’s allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, must do whatever is necessary to strongly support their main ally in the Middle East, if necessary through military action. Failure to do so will increase the risks of escalation of conflict in the region.
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