Ukrainian military personnel practice combat exercises involving a BMP-1 in Donbass, Ukraine, as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, March 19, 2024.
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With a new tranche of U.S. aid on its way to Ukraine, kyiv can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that its forces will receive new weapons supplies and equipment to continue combating advancing Russian forces.
But with future aid uncertain, analysts wonder what “victory” Ukraine could reasonably achieve against Russia – a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is capable of mobilizing hundreds of thousands of additional troops for the war.
Even if additional aid allows Ukraine to continue fighting Russian forces in the short term, a short-term “victory” is an unlikely prospect. Moreover, the “victory” of Ukraine or its allies could be a source of friction.
“While renewed U.S. military support will likely avert a possible military defeat in 2024, recent months have clearly demonstrated the dangers of Kiev’s (over)dependence on U.S. military aid.” , said Andrius Tursa, advisor for Central and Eastern Europe at consultancy Teneo. said Tuesday in emailed comments.
“There is also a lack of common vision between kyiv and its allies on what a Ukrainian ‘victory’ means and the steps and resources needed to achieve it,” he noted.
“Officially, kyiv still aims to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, but few find this realistic in the short and medium term.”
Russian President and presidential candidate Vladimir Putin speaks to the crowd during a rally and concert celebrating the 10th anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea on Red Square in Moscow March 18, 2024 .
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Discussions on alternative settlement options acceptable to kyiv could resume later in 2024, Tursa said, especially since “the part of the Ukrainian population is ready to consider territorial concessions in exchange for the cessation of hostilities/the peace is constantly increasing.
kyiv insists it will liberate all of its territory conquered by Russia since 2014. This includes Crimea and four Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed in 2022, which it has since sought to “Russify” by distributing Russian passports, pensions and benefits while erasing Ukrainian culture, history and language in public spaces and schools.
Russian leaders have effectively staked their authority, legitimacy and legacy on victory in Ukraine and are unlikely to voluntarily withdraw their troops from southern and eastern Ukraine. This is particularly the case in eastern Ukraine, where the country has enjoyed support from pro-Russian separatists for more than a decade.
Franchise is necessary
Analysts say an “honest” conversation needs to take place between allies and Ukraine to determine what victory might look like, as well as what concessions and compromises might be necessary as part of a peace deal or of a ceasefire.
“I want to see the liberation of the occupied (Russian) territory, but it is very difficult to do, at least at the moment. So we need to talk about it with our partners and have this unity with our partners,” said Oleksandr Musiyenko, said a kyiv-based military expert and head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.
Morale boosted by the latest infusion of U.S. aid means there is currently little appetite among Ukraine’s leaders to discuss a possible end to the war that does not involve outright victory, Musienko said .
“Here in Ukraine, people and politicians feel a little sensitive when talking about this, but I am sure we have to be honest with the Ukrainian people and also with our Western partners, it is very important,” did he declare. CNBC Wednesday.
A woman walks past a huge poster depicting a Russian soldier and a letter Z – a tactical badge of Russian troops in Ukraine, in Sevastopol, Crimea, April 23, 2022. The “Z”, which has become a symbol of support for the Russians. military in Ukraine, is widely used by Russian authorities and supporters of President Putin, to decorate building facades, bus doors, car windshields and T-shirts.
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The best-case scenario for Ukraine would be to free its entire territory from Russian troops and join NATO and the EU, “but I’m sure we need to talk about different scenarios,” Musiyenko said. Much could depend on the battlefield impact of the latest $61 billion U.S. aid package and the weapons and equipment it provides to Ukraine – and the future support it receives. Ukraine after the US presidential election scheduled for later this year.
If Russian forces could be weakened, depleted and pushed back in the coming months, particularly in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, then this could open up space for talks and an allied-backed ceasefire. , according to Musiyenko. It also depends on Ukraine’s need for strong security and defense guarantees.
In such a scenario, there could be some sort of balance of power, he said, in what could ultimately become a prolonged, albeit difficult, ceasefire.
“(In such a scenario) the Ukrainians will not have as much power to liberate former territories, according to the international border, and the Russians will not have as much power to occupy more territory,” he said. declared.
Ukraine will never recognize the occupied territories as belonging to Russia, Musienko said, but a ceasefire would keep the country waiting. “In this scenario, Ukraine will retain its independence and sovereignty, Western support will be high and we will be able to communicate with our partners,” he said.
“We will never accept that this (occupied territory) could be Russian territory. Nobody will agree. But we will just continue to wait like East and West Germany (before their reunification in 1990). This could be the scenario we can realistically expect.
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