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The signing of Max Scherzer from the Mets is worth the huge risk

Well, that’s a stunner. Max Scherzer joining the Mets is the opposite of the inevitable.

Still, this signing could bring Steve Cohen’s property to an inevitable turning point, a crucial test: how will he face a major sunk cost?

Maybe I’m sounding the alarm bells for no reason. After all, Scherzer, 37, just finished third in the vote for the 2021 National League’s Cy Young, ending a seven-year, $ 210 million deal with the Nationals (who traded him to the Dodgers last July) which will drop as one of the best signings in baseball history.

Then again, this question speaks less to the player than to the dollars: 130 million of them over three years, erasing the previous record for average annual value of $ 36 million that Gerrit Cole set with his deal with the Yankees in December. 2019.

Cole signed a nine-year contract (for $ 324 million) entering his campaign at the age of 29 in 2020, leading him to his year of 37 in 2028. Scherzer will be signed until his season. age 39, 2024.

If Scherzer behaves like, say, an ace in 2022 (assuming the labor dispute is resolved in time), a number three starter in 2023, and a down guy in ’24, then this deal will justify itself. Cohen is clearly willing to pay a hefty premium to make his Mets interesting and relevant, and intimidating for him. After his first offseason focused more on depth than fireworks, he is using his billions to put together a very compelling and competitive 22 ball club.

The signing of Max Scherzer from the Mets is worth the huge risk
The Mets sign a record contract with Max Scherzer.
NY Post Illustration / Steve Kaye

For those of us who don’t care about the Mets’ performance, however, it will be more intriguing if Scherzer falls off a cliff, whether through injury or underperformance, during the duration of this agreement. Would Cohen let those expenses keep him from investing more? All other owners would. It’s a market inefficiency that Cohen, by far the richest owner in the industry, can exploit quite effectively if he wants to.

The signing of Max Scherzer from the Mets is worth the huge risk
Mets owner Steve Cohen can handle the risk of giving Max Scherzer so much money.
Corey Sipkin

The Mets missed last year’s fireworks display Francisco Lindor, committing $ 341 million over 10 years from 22, when the two sides could have taken last season to get to know each other after the stoppage- short either came from the small Cleveland market in a trade. Maybe Lindor’s offense will slip and his discomfort with New York won’t subside and he’ll beat Scherzer in this albatross race. Considering Lindor’s age (28) and her performance at the end of last season, I think Scherzer (who suffered a deadlock in the 21 National League Championship Series) is becoming the most great risk in the short term.

Either way, these are fun questions for the Mets and their fans to entertain. They appear when your landlord spends a lot of money in the hope of accomplishing great things. You will be happy to understand the potential worst-case scenario when the rise is so high.

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