Some comments from the ANZ preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy meeting taking place on May 25, 2022 (RBNZ will issue a monetary policy statement and follow up on a Governor Orr’s press conference).
ANZ, in summary:
- We expect the RBNZ to increase the Official Exchange Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.00%
- Beyond that, the path is murkier. We continue to expect the RBNZ to move to the more usual pace of 25 basis point increases from July as evidence mounts that demand is slowing.
- However, if further upside inflation surprises emerge, the hurdle for another 50 bps in July is low.
The RBNZ crunch began last year on October 6: