The report on jobs should show that hiring slowed down before Trump’s prices shock

The federal government will publish the latest monthly job report on Friday – but following President Donald Trump’s shock announcement on Wednesday to disrupt the global economy with large prices on American imports, new labor market data for March will essentially end up reflecting a different era.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the survey at 8:30 a.m. Dow Jones estimates have shown forecasts of around 140,000 new net wages, against 151,000 before, the unemployment rate unchanged for the month at 4.1%.

This would always represent a relatively healthy series of hiring, despite major federal job cuts adopted by the Elon Musk Government Ministry. According to a separate report published Thursday by jobs and the career advice Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Doge was responsible for around 216,000 reductions in federal workforce. Challenger uses various BLS data to follow job changes in the economy, so that the number may not be recovered by the federal survey.

But if the Directorate General for Challenger figures is correct, it means that even before Trump’s speech this week, the economy is already showing a greater slowdown than the new prices are likely to worsen.

“The report of this month can sit in the back for current negotiations on prices rates and the climbing potential of reprisals for trade partners in the United States,” Matthew Weller, World Research Manager on Forex.com on Thursday.

He continued: “Concentrating only on the job market, even last month’s prices on Canada, Mexico and China probably have little impact on Mars reading (jobs), although there is a risk that we can start to see the work edge of the employment of the Ministry of Government Effectiveness (DOGE) filtering.”

Citi analysts had an even lower forecast of new net jobs – 95,000, the unemployment rate reaching 4.2%.

“This would mainly reflect low hires at a time of the year when hiring would begin to fall back,” they wrote in a note last week. “But this slowdown would precede a period starting around May and continues during the summer when the weakness of low hires could be increased by federal employment features and overflow effects in the private sector. The proof that the economy is already starting to slow down in advance on the risks of lower decreases again has the Fed reduction rates in May. ”

Other data on jobs published this week have shown that large layoffs have remained sifted, but hiring too.

But Mars data is firmly in the rear view mirror for most analysts now that Trump has officially launched his efforts to reorganize the American economy.

“With the assembly of recession fears, a weaker than expected point (employment data point) could be a nail in the coffin for the American economy,” Barclays analysts said on Thursday.

“Unfortunately, a more encouraging reading could easily be rejected as” exceeded “since important prices strike the American labor market. In this context, it seems that it is a losing situation for the markets.”