Warsaw, Poland (AP) – The presidential election of Poland has resolved to an austere ideological choice: a liberal pro -European mayor against an ardent nationalist conservative. They question so close that the result is impossible to predict in the runoff tour Sunday.
It is not only a domestic matter. President Donald Trump threw his weight behind the nationalist candidate, Karol Nawrocki, and suspended the prospect of narrower military links if the posts choose him compared to the liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski.
A competition with global implications
Trump met Nawrocki earlier this month at the White House and sent his Kristi Noem internal security secretary to a meeting of the CPAC conservative pressure group in Poland, where it offered solid approval.
Noem even suspended the prospect of American military links in American matters in the event of Nawrocki’s victory – with the implicit warning that a trzaskowski victory could compromise the security of Poland.
The Autocratic Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, who maintains the close ties of the Kremlin, also supported Nawrocki at a CPAC meeting in Budapest on Thursday.
The stake is not only the national course of Poland, but also the international status of a key to the European Union and NATO on the eastern flank of the Alliance, in a region KIPPED by anxiety on the Russian war in Ukraine.
Sunday’s vote will allow Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro -EU reformer, with a presidential ally who can advance his bill – or sow him with a rival that could veto the legislation and block government initiatives.
Trzaskowski supporters argue that a pro-European leader would improve the global position of Poland during a period of war in Europe. Nawrocki’s donors believe that only the conservative rule can protect national sovereignty and traditional Christian values, and they say that Trump’s support would considerably improve the security of Poland.
Growing support for the populist right
But the candidate who could finally decide the result is the one who will not appear on the buff.
Sławomir Mentzen, a 38 -year -old far -right politician and beer producer in the central city of Torun, finished third in the first round on May 18, with almost 15% of the vote. Although eliminated, his supporters – often young, anti -establishment and deeply skeptical of the political establishment of Brussels and Poland – have become the most sought after the country.
The two remaining candidates did everything possible to the Mentzen courtly and its base. In recent days, each man went to the Polish city of the North Center of Torun, famous for the birthplace of the astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus, to appear on the YouTube channel of Mentzen, where he has built a follow-up with a mixture of libertarian economy, nationalist rhetoric and anti-eu invective.
Its influence highlights a broader change in Polish politics, where the extreme right – formerly considered a marginal force – is increasingly shaping the national agenda. This is also part of a larger trend in the right -wing hard parties that gain ground across Europe.
The attraction of right -wing forces in changing times
Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw Office of the European Council on foreign relations, says that Poland is part of a wider scheme in which voters turn to populist forces in the midst of rapid social change. But he also cites local factors, such as disillusionment with Tusk’s coalition.
This coalition, which extends over the ideological spectrum, has struggled to agree on key issues, in particular the liberalization of the law on abortion – a campaign promise. Meanwhile, outgoing conservative president Andrzej Duda blocked certain parts of the Tusk agenda. Observers say that coalition voters must be very mobilized on Sunday to defeat Nawrocki.
The candidate for the liberal presidential president Rafal Trzaskowski, before on the left, acts while he and the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, before right, participate in a March a week before a decisive presidential election in Warsaw, in Poland, Sunday May 25, 2025. (AP Photo / Czarek Sokolowski)
Many votes in the first round went to the protest of candidates. Among the voters aged 18 to 29, more than 35% supported Mentzen and almost 20% supported a left -wing candidate, Adrian Zandberg, according to exit polls.
In addition, an extreme right anti -Semitic, Grzegorz Braun, won more than 6% of the votes as a whole.
Buras thinks that the candidates for the right -wing protest are more attractive today than those on the left because they promise to restore a lost past, while the left promises a better future that many consider to be inaccessible.
“The world is changing, society is changing very quickly, much faster than any time in the past,” said Buras. “People are worried and vote for those who say that we can go back to the glorious past.”
Campaign on a YouTube scene
Since the first round, Mentzen – Co -leader of the Confederation Party – presented to the two candidates a list of eight points requests: no new taxes; Defense of cash payments; Widened firearms; and opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine, among others.
Nawrocki, who appeared in the emission of Mentzen on June 22, signed the eight points – including the controversial position of Ukraine – breaking with the longtime support of his right and justice for the integration of Kyiv with the West.
Trzaskowski appeared two days later. He said he could agree with certain points, such as the budgetary restraint, but rejected others. He firmly defended LGBTQ + rights and reaffirmed that Ukraine should possibly join NATO, once the war ended, calling him Key to the own security of Poland.
YouTube interviews dominated the political conversation, stressing how Mentzen, a foreigner Tiktok-Dvy, upset the traditional campaign.
The exchange between Trzaskowski and Mentzen on Saturday was sometimes tense, in particular on LGBTQ +rights, but remained civil and substantial.
In many ways, this has overshadowed a traditional television debate the day before. The substance of this debate did not seem to change the trajectory of the campaign. The thing that the posts discussed the most were a brief moment when Nawrocki inserted something in his mouth which, later, was a pocket of tobacco. Some wondered if he was able to be president if he could not pass a two -hour debate without taking a tobacco.
A post-debate meeting on beer
After the sometimes sophisticated exchanges, Mentzen sat for a beer with Trzaskowski and others in the pub he has.
The informal rally was documented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Radek Sikorski, who was also there. He published a video on social networks on Saturday evening showing the group with the words: “For a poland that unites, not the divisions.”
The video Quickly became viral, commentators specifying to find out if it was a spontaneous gesture or a calculated political decision.
It was also another example, if others were necessary, how the forces on the right in Europe become slowly accepted.
For Mentzen, the moment was also annoying. The man who made the name of the political elite seemed comfortable with personalities from the establishment. Critics on the hard law were unleashed, revealing fractures in the movement he helped to popularize.
After swinging the promises of approval for days, Mentzen said on Wednesday afternoon that he would offer none to any of the candidates. “Vote as your conscience tells you,” he told his supporters.
