(Bloomberg) – Russia’s ability to continue to make fuel at the normal rate seems more and more precarious following an increase in Ukrainian drone attacks against the country’s oil refineries, including a new incident on Friday .
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For the moment, analysts who follow the country’s oil industry say that attacks are manageable for Russia and not enough to cause serious concerns about fuel production, since the proportion of the country’s refining Incidents is low. However, Ukraine seems to be on the improvement of attacks in the energy infrastructure of its enemy, increasing the probability of new attempts.
In only the past eight days, Swarms of kyiv’s Drones has targeted three major refineries in the center and southern Russia, as well as a pumping station on a large raw export line, according to the staff of Ukraine and other familiar security officials with attacks. Friday, the most recent was on the Volgograd refinery of Lukoil PJSC.
Russia, the largest country in the world by land mass, manufactures large quantities of fuel both for its internal needs and on the world export market. The production levels remain high, but they must be – providing more than 144 million people. However, there are provisional signs that Ukrainian drones can start to eliminate this outing.
At least one of the gross treatment facilities attacked a week ago – the giant Rosneft PJSC Ryazan refinery about 120 miles southeast of Moscow – interrupted the treatment. The magnitude of any possible damage after the Friday attack on the Volgograd factory is not clear, while the Nizhny Novgorod refinery of Lukoil seemed unscathed after an attack on Wednesday.
Sergey Vakulenko, who spent a decade as a manager at a Russian oil producer, and is now a scholar in the Endowment for International Peace Carnegie, said the current situation seems manageable.
“A judgment of a few refineries for a few weeks is something that the Russian industry and the economy can easily support, judging by last year’s experience,” he said. “The question of whether the effects of attacks would be significantly wider and more durable is difficult to say at the moment.”
The Ryazan refinery is located near a few others – in Moscow, Yaroslavl, Kstovo – which can cover the possible shortage in its supply area, said Vakulenko.
Russia should largely be able to compensate for any Ryazan deficit by increasing production elsewhere, even if it could become more difficult, said Viktor Katona, gross analyst of the KPLER energy analysis company.
He estimates that Russia crude gross treatment rates could now be as low as 5.2 to 5.3 million barrels per day – levels more often associated in spring and autumn, when factories will interview routine during periods of relatively fallow demand.
While Russia’s large -scale war against Ukraine is approaching its fourth year, kyiv has sent a record number of drones to Russia, not only attacking key energy installations but also the factories involved in the production of ammunition.
Russia regularly strikes the energy infrastructure of Ukraine since the start of the war, the attacks causing massive breakdowns, leaving millions without electricity.
The authorities of Moscow and companies rarely comment on the effects of the drone strikes the country’s industrial and economic facilities. The government has classified data on Russian crude production and exports in 2022, which makes it more difficult to assess the impact of Ukraine Salves.
Ukrainian officials argue that the main objective of their attacks on Russian oil refineries, pumping stations, pipelines and oil depots, is to cut supplies to the Russian army and reduce the ability of Kremlin to Kremlin to Kremlin to Kremlin to Kremlin Produce and export oil and fuel, a key goods for the country’s budget to the country.
Russia is one of the best producers and exporters of oil and fuel in the world and has maintained flows for customers abroad, even though Western sanctions have led to the loss of European and North American markets. The country’s exporters were able to redirect volumes to buyers in places such as India, China and Turkey.
On January 10, the United States imposed its most difficult sanctions on Russian oil and gas, in a black list Gazprom Neft PJSC and Surgutneftegas PJSC and a large part of the shadow fleet which transports the barrels of the nation to the foreigner.
The sanctions, which are designed to further limit the ability of the Kremlin to market its raw and petroleum products, have a period of end until the end of the end of the end, and have so far not have Assigned Russian deliveries, shows the data collected by Bloomberg.