The OPTA supercomputer worked in overtime following the first wave of quarter -finals in the Champions League, and he found a new favorite to go to the first European competition.
Before the last, Barcelona was considered the most likely team to raise the emblematic trophy in Munich in May, ahead of PSG and Arsenal, with a 23.1%chapter.
On Tuesday, however, two crucial results shook the predictions and given a team in particular falling considerably into the table.
Bayern Munich lost 2-1 at home against Inter Milan, finalists in 2023, leaving Harry Kane and Co a lot to do in the north of Italy, while Arsenal amazed Real Madrid with a 3-0 victory to consolidate their own references.
As such, and perhaps without surprise given the gravity of equality, Arsenal has now won the table and is considered the most likely team to win the Champions League.
The supercomputer calculations are carried out using a combination of Paris Cotes and Opta feeding classification, which in turn derives recent and historical team performance in the competition.
Barcelona was previously considered
Arsenal amazed Real Madrid with a Masterclass Declan Rice to take a 3-0 advance in the tie
Real Madrid was amazed by Arsenal but still has a chance in the second stage at Bernabeu
The OPTA supercomputer assesses their chances to 28.4% – an increase of 12.8% compared to pre -game forecasts – and the Gunners have 96% chance of making the semi -finals and 54.2% probability of reaching the final.
The two free kicks of Declan Rice and the end of the beautiful finish of Mikel Merino gave them an advantage of three goals, but they still have to go to the Bernabeu and finish the work, which is not an easy task.
Second behind Arsenal, Barcelona, whose chances drop from 0.7% to 22.4%, and should face Borussia Dortmund in their first leg in the quarter -finals on Wednesday evening.
The Blaugrana are interesting the third plus likely to reach the semi-finals and the final, behind Arsenal and Inter, while retaining an advantage over the Italian giants in terms of references to raise the trophy, it seems.
As for Inter, their victory over Bayern increased its chances of increase to 82.4%, against 51.5% – and their overall chances of the title are up 7.3%.
Fourth French PSG champion, abandoning two pre-match predictions, but still many suitors with a drop of only 0.5% for their chances of glory.
Parisian outfit has a chance of 72.4% – up 1.1% – to beat Aston Villa in the semi -finals and to face Arsenal or Real Madrid in the past four times, although the dominant victory of the Gunners apparently had an impact on the chances of PSG to reach the final, down 0.7% to 35.5 percent.
There is then a considerable drop between the upper and lower halves of the prediction table – which seems slightly unfair since two of them have not even played yet.
| Half-Lieu | Final | Winner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 96.00% | 54.20% | 28.40% |
| Barcelona | 80% | 43.30% | 22.40% |
| Between | 82.40% | 43.70% | 21.10% |
| PSG | 72.40% | 35.50% | 18.80% |
| Bayern Munich | 17.60% | 8.60% | 3.70% |
| Aston Villa | 27.60% | 8.00% | 3.20% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 20.00% | 4.40% | 1.30% |
| real Madrid | 4.00% | 2.20% | 1.10% |
Lautaro Martinez and Inter recorded a 2-1 crucial victory against Bayern Munich to go to the third
PSG fell into the fourth team the most likely to win the Champions League before its clash in the first stage with Aston Villa Wednesday
The chances of Bayern Munich to win the Champions League took a big blow on Tuesday evening
Aston Villa will face Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their quarter-final on Wednesday
Bayern is oddly in place from the sixth to the fifth despite the loss, although their chances of winning the Champions League (3.7%) decreased by 7.1%.
Their entanglement to defeat by means, they still have 17.6% chance of making the semi-finals, and 8.6% to reach the final.
Bayern is just ahead of Aston Villa, which faces PSG on Wednesday evening, and still have a chance to fight (27.6% probability) to reach the semi-finals, although their overall title references are evaluated only 3.2%, marginally down predictions before day of day.
Borussia Dortmund, which will face Barcelona on Wednesday, receives only 20% chance of beat the Catalan giants, and 1.3% of the victory of the competition, but the biggest losers in the first round – in many ways – are Real Madrid.
Previously, a chance of success of 12.2% and a chance of 49.8% of Ho-Soght to beat Arsenal through two legs, Real Madrid is now at the bottom of the battery on 1.1% to win the tournament.
They can be three in Arsenal towards the second stage, but an early goal at the Bernabeu, the fan suddenly in full voice, the pressure suddenly on Arsenal suddenly, and you expect that 4% of the increase in the right.
