It’s night before victory day, and throughout Moscow, many air defenders stirred …
Ok, so I torn off an old Christmas story a little. But, the day before the great parade of Putin in the Red Square, I thought of exploring the potential of a Ukrainian attack.
Many have hypothesized that Putin’s justification for his recent three -day truce offer was to make sure that he had an uninterrupted parade on May 9. It would be embarrassing to the extreme, in particular with his good companion, President XI XI, to have a kind of Ukrainian attack or drone passing during his big day.
This may be the reason for the unilateral truce of Putin. But I think the driver most likely to continue to launch Donald Trump and make sure that America remains engaged in peace negotiations after Trump’s comments on Putin In the wake of sound Recently recent with Zelenskyy in Rome.
Anyway, the Ukrainian president rejected the peace offer of 3 days.
More intriguing, the head of the general of Ukrainian military intelligence Budanov hinted in his own way that the Russians should watch the sky on May 9. His real quote was “bringing ear traffic jams”.
Now it could be his way of playing with the minds of the Russians. After all, this is part of Budanov’s work. But what could be the strategic justification for a Ukrainian attack on the May 9 victory day parade in Moscow? To answer this, I think there are several key problems that must be resolved. These are:
Can Ukraine enter Russian air defense networks and bring its drones to the Red Square?
What could be the advantages of such an attack?
What would be the potential drawbacks of such an attack?
Is it just a great plan of deception so that Ukraine can do something important elsewhere?
Let us examine each of these questions in order.
Ukraine has repeatedly proven that it can penetrate the Russian aerial defenses and put its drones in Moscow. He led several small -scale attacks in 2023 and 2024. The biggest attack saw at least 90 Ukrainian drones slaughtered on Moscow in March this year.
Ukraine has also carried out drone attacks in the last three days. This has slowed down or stopped traffic at Moscow airports, especially that of Vnukovo airport – where VIPs fly. As CNN reported::
The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, said in a telegram on Tuesday that at least 19 Ukrainian drones had been destroyed on their approach to the capital during the night, one night after the Russian aerial defenses killed four drones near the city.
These recent drone flights could simply be probes to establish where the Russians have deployed additional air defense systems and how much they move them. Of course, these drone missions could also be part of a much more important deception plan, which I will explore below.
The Russians are not total idiots, and as I wrote previously, they have learned and adapted in the past two years. They have regularly evolved their air, missiles and drones defenses. It is a network difficult to penetrate, but as the Ukrainians have demonstrated, it has weaknesses that can be exploited.
But to answer the central question, Ukrainians are very capable of penetrating Russian airspace and flying drones in Moscow. So, yes, it is in the field of the possible that they can do it. The Russians certainly seem to think.
