If you wrote a novel in which the first Latin American pope died on Easter Monday – which fell on April 21, the traditional birthday of the City of Rome’s foundation – it would be rejected by any decent editor. But that is precisely what happened. Pope Francis, a symbol for many of the possibility of more compassionate Christianity, has died. The apostolic throne of Saint-Pierre is now empty.
The period between the death of a pope and the election of his successor by the College of Cardinals is rather known in a disturbing manner as a “vacant sede” (the vacant seat). It normally lasts around 15 to 20 days, nine of which are the official mourning period known as Novine. Shortly after the period of nine days, after the conclusion of the funeral rites of the recently deceased Pope, the main cardinals of the Catholic Church will meet in private to elect a new pope in a conclave.
The word conclave, from Latin “with key”, comes from the 13th century when, after the death of Pope Clément IV, the cardinals could not agree on a new pope for almost three years. As frustration grew, it was decided to lock the cardinals, providing them with only bread and water until they make a decision. This practice of cardinals is in name is now a question of canon law. Even if the conclave did not start, in our anxious moments, many are already beginning to consider who could be the next bishop of Rome.
The election of a new pope has always been as much political balancing as the spiritual exercise. Most of the current conversation has focused on “progressive” aspects compared to the “traditionalist” aspects of global cultural wars. In general, this refers to the growing fracture in the Catholic Church between the so-called progressives who promote reforms to the attitude of the Church towards cultural and social problems (in particular those linked to gender and sexuality) and the “traditionalists” who oppose such reforms, often arguing to create even more strict standards in the light of liberalization in the broader society. (Francis was considered more progressive, while his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI was a traditionalist.) This gap is not unique at the Catholic Church and can now be seen in almost all religious traditions. But although this conflict probably dominates the conclave and the cover of it, there are also other factors at stake.
By trying to predict the next papacy, it is also crucial to focus on the question of national origin – or more precisely, regional -. This has always been a factor in the choice of a pope, the vast majority of which were the Italians. The election of the Polish pope Jean-Paul II in 1978, the first non-Italian in more than 500 years, was considered a major exhibition of support for Catholics who still live behind the iron curtain. So, where could the next Pope come from-and who could be, and what could it point out about the future of the Church?
The fact is that what the average Christian looks like and where the average Christian life changes faster than ever, which will inevitably shape the next papacy. Christianity is in decline in North America and Western Europe, even if this decline seems to have slowed down in the United States, at least recently. But in Latin America, Asia and Africa (a region that calls for the “world South”, although the term strikes a colonialist note), Christianity increases, both due to birth rate and higher conversions. Certain estimates suggest that in 2050, 78% of Christians in the world will live in the world of world. African Christianity, in particular, has experienced enormous growth, the data suggesting that in 2050, 40% of Christians in the world will live in Africa. For Catholicism in particular, these figures are even more austere, and the Vatican’s own relationships suggest that the future of the Catholic Church is undeniably in Africa.
While the demographic center of the Christian world has changed, power centers remained firmly in the West. No African or Asian leader has been elected head of a great world Christian name since the end of Antiquity. (The last pope born in Africa was Pope Gelasius I, who died in 496.) And although Pope Francis was indeed the first Pope in Latin America, as the sons of Italian immigrants in Argentina, he came firmly in the cultural framework and the historical trajectory of Catholicism in southern Europe. It is difficult to see it entirely as a “world’s southern pope”.
One could assume that progressives within the Catholic Church would defend the rise of leaders outside Europe. However, an uncomfortable truth for many of these progressives is that the world South, and in particular Africa, has become an important center of power for traditionalists in ferocious cultural debates that have shaken Christianity over the past four decades. It was true not only for Catholics, but Anglicans, Methodists and others. Of course, it is important to note that millions of dollars have been spent by pushing a conservative social program in Africa and that African Christians are far from being a monolith. But in broad demographic terms, a progressive Catholic of bets would probably prefer a European pope to an African pope.
There are only a few realistic African contenders at the moment, both deeply traditionalist. There is the Ghanaian cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76. Bring to the Vatican by the preservative predecessor of Pope Francis, Turkson is best known outside the Circles of the Vatican for his anti-Gay attitudes, in particular approves the Draconian Draconian Homosexuality of Ghana. He is joined by Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, of Guinea, who once positioned himself as a “parallel authority” to Pope Francis. He defended office celibacy denounced “gender ideology” and argued that there can be “no theological dialogue” with Islam. These men are among the most conservative potential candidates to be the next Pope.
Meanwhile, the majority of progressive candidates, including the most progressive, are almost all in Europe. There is Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça from Portugal. His relatively liberal opinions on homosexual relations as well as her sympathies with a Benedictine Pro-Choix nun which promotes the ordination of women put him firmly in the progressive camp. However, at 59, he is the youngest among the candidates and he is therefore unlikely to obtain the position for these reasons. More likely, the Italian cardinal Matteo Zappi (and what could be more conventional than an Italian pope?). In large part, in the theological and pastoral image of Pope Francis, Zuppi would in a way would be the most “Eurocentric” choice, having spent time as a self -employed peace in Ukraine and Russia and considered to be widely focused on the European Church.
Given the demographic realities that the Catholic Church is faced, a progressive European cardinal seems very improbable, even if a progressive, at least on gender and sexual questions, is probably necessary to stem bleeding in Europe in particular. Even a traditionalist European cardinal, of which there are many, could be considered out of step with the place where Catholicism is heading. All of this puts the conclave to come in an apparently impossible situation.
The man who could offer a way to get around this dead end from the traditionally Catholic Asian country of the Philippines, a progressive candidate from outside Europe (and this time without European immigrant parents): Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle. Cardinal Tagle was nicknamed “Asian Francis” in certain circles because of his commitment to social justice. However, he is still not a European and would be the first Asian pope, and the first non -white pope since the beginning of the Middle Ages. (It is possible, even probably, that the three Popes born Africans of late Antiquity were black.)
His election would paciate the Western progressives, who have proven to be too ready to skip the ship if the church maintains too conservative a position on key social issues, while offering the world of world – and the new Christian majority – a leader who looks like and has lived more like his herd. This seems to be a clear path for an increasingly divided church not only along the ideological lines, but also geographic lines. And, for what it is worth, Tagle is currently leading the ratings of Paris Vegas – a good indication that who will put himself on who will go to the balcony on Saint -Pierre square after the white smoke has increased.
Whoever appears in front of the crowd that day will be a compromise, a man who in his life and his theology must satisfy, to a certain extent, the variable factions of a changing Catholic Church which is more and more divided by geography and politics – the reflection of the broader world. He has just given him the noisiest pulpit in the world and what it does not only affect the faithful, but the world.
