Cnn
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For more than three decades, Iran has built a network of proxy networks to push its battles far beyond its borders – keeping enemies at a distance, while the supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has tightened its grip on power. Direct strike on Iran remained inconceivable.
This image of invincibility collapsed in the space of the hours on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise and unprecedented attack at the bottom of Iran, breaking the feeling of security of Tehran and dismilling his carefully cultivated force.
His strikes withdrew the best military leaders And some of Iran’s most eminent nuclear scientists, some of which were sleeping at home with their families. The human toll was significant, with 627 killed, including at least 49 women and 13 children, according to Hossein Kermanpour, head of the information center of the Ministry of Health. THE The United States joined the Israel campaign on Sunday, Stronging three nuclear sites before declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the next day.
Many in Iran and abroad now fear the leaders of the country – its pride and injured defenses – can tighten its hold at home while adopting a much more fellow position in national and foreign policy.
Israel and the United States had Drift of diet As a potential result of their attacks on Iran, which hoped, would lead to a more friendly state with them. Their inability to provoke this prompted the regime to win the victory.
Iran’s leaders have shown resilience, replacing those he lost and making a severe repression of those he considers to be accomplices in Israel.
The panels also indicate a diet that is much more paranoidAnd likely to reign with a tighter fist at home in the fear of cooperation with its enemies.
After three years of rule by a conservative government led by Ebrahim Raisi, Iran elected the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian last year, who campaigned for a dialogue with the enemies of Iran, and presented this as a means of solving the national problems of the country.
For many Iranians, it has been considered the last hope of delivering a nuclear agreement with the West and reintegrating Iran into the international community.
During the 12 -day conflict, Iran has repeatedly retaliated in Israel, causing numerous damage to big cities as such Aviv and killing 28 people. His ability to retaliate under fire praised the house, even among these CNNs, who oppose who are opposed to the diet.
“People currently feel very nationalist. We have just crossed a war together which, according to everyone, was unjustified, so the government has a degree of good will,” said Ali, 36. “They put us in the shooting line with their policies, but generally, they managed war well.”
But this is what happens then that has many Iranians concerned. There are growing fears of an imminent repression of reformists and calls for change, while the regime is evolving to eliminate employees perceived with Israel. Authorities arrested 700 people accused of being “mercenaries of Israel on Wednesday,” reported the Fars news agency affiliated to the state.
Neda, a 45-year-old Iranian, said that she believed that the body of Islamic Revolution (IRGC), an Iranian army elite wing which is sanctioned by the United States, “will probably become stronger, consolidating even more power”, especially if disorganized leadership creates a vacuum cleaner.
Khamenei would have hidden in a bunker, with little access to communications, and has not yet been seen in public since Israel and Iran have reached the ceasefire, which entered into force on Tuesday.
“They (the government) were strong in their demonstration of force (against Israel) and this will have at least for a while,” told Neda to CNN. “We do not know if the gains that we have made (during the reform) in recent years will remain. What was it?
All the Iranians who spoke with CNN did it subject to anonymity out of fear for their safety.
Arash Azizi, an Iranian expert based in New York and author of the book “What the Iranians want”, said that Iranians are probably worried that “an injured regime reaches them and closed the political and civic space further”.
The repression could worsen, he told CNN, adding that the Iranian opposition abroad has proven “inept and politically out of words”, while civil society at home is “on the defensive”.
Experts say that attacks on Iran have only embraced conservatives who have long estimated that the West and Israel cannot trust and that negotiations are only a tactic to weaken the country. The fate of reformers and pragmatists is now at stake, and only time will tell us if they survive the change in the ranks of leaders who are likely, they said.
“The attacks have strengthened the rights of rights which argue that diplomacy with the West is futile and that Iran must remain militarily autonomous,” Sina Tossi, senior member of the Center for International Policy, based in Washington, DC Center for International Policy told CNN. “Reformative voices, pro-engagement with Western forces, have been marginalized in this climate.”
“In the short term, rigids are likely to prevail,” he said. “But that can change depending on the broader result of the conflict and if diplomatic efforts with the United States are bearing fruit.”
On Sunday, the United States joined the Israel campaign against Iran, hitting three nuclear installations and risking a war in its own right with the Islamic Republic. But American president Donald Trump later announced the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, preserving the regime he said later that he did not want to change because it would “lead to chaos”.
“The wider lesson is that the Islamic Republic is not invincible, but it is not easily overturned either,” said Tossi.
The attack of Israel against Iran has not led to popular uprisings, but rather to a demonstration of unity among the Iranians who considered their country as attacked in an uninsured war, even if they remain suspicious of the repression which could follow.
“Whether people are supporters of our government or not, there is an anger that we feel about Trump and Israel,” a 35 -year -old man in Iran told CNN.
The most in service leader in the Middle East, Khamanei has reigned with an iron fist for over 35 years, canceling the demonstrations for at least 2005.
As the highest authority in Iran, a large part of the country’s domestic and foreign policy is influenced, if not shaped, by it.
Some experts say that despite the spectacle of national unity after the conflict with Israel, there is probably frustration with Khamenei.
“He was too cautious when he had to be daring and too daring when he had to be prudent,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iranian project of the International Crisis group, adding that the religious is probably considered to have destroyed the deterrence of Iran and “returned the vulnerable country”. “”
“A large part of the blame is placed on him and his decision -making – his inflexibility at the negotiation table, his challenge in the face of much stronger conventional military powers,” said Vaez to CNN. When dust sets in, there may be questions about the sick chief and his decisions over the years, he said.
Questions can also arise on the role and importance of a long -term supreme leader, according to VAEZ.
“There is a strong desire for revolutionary guards and military forces in Iran to double and to adopt a much more rooted position, to militarize the internal sphere more and even to pursue nuclear weapons as ultimate deterrent,” said VAEZ.
The paranoia around the infiltration of Israel in the government will likely lead to a “purge” at the upper level of the system, which could lead to prevailing the rich, he added.
The fate of the reformist Pezeshkian and his moderate camp remains uncertain. While the supreme chief remained in the hiding place, it was Pezeshkian who spoke to the Iranians, to make public statements and even to attend an anti-war demonstration in Tehran.
However, the reformists are no exception to the anger of the public. A 42 -year -old woman in Iran questioned the viability of the current regime. “They put us in a quagmire,” she told CNN. “This happened on a watch by reformists.”
Experts say that the bursting of the aura of invincibility of the regime will change Iran, but the way this change takes place is uncertain and depends on the way in which Iranian leaders and foreign powers react to the 12 -day conflict.
For the Iranian people, the feeling that they were at least safe inside the borders of their country were canceled.
“The Islamic Republic had a social contract with the company, that is to say that it deprived them of all freedoms … in exchange for guaranteed insurance,” said Vaez. “Now this image has been broken in the eyes of the Iranian people.”
