- Economists say that Trump’s buyout is not enough to have an impact on the national labor market.
- When you take into account the total reductions in federal spending, a greater negative effect is possible.
- About 65,000 federal workers would have accepted the buyout to leave their jobs.
The Trump administration’s buyout offer to federal employees will probably not affect enough workers to have an immediate impact on the national labor market, according to economists.
According to the White House, more than 65,000 federal employees have accepted the delayed resignation offer, which promises remuneration and benefits until September to workers who stop working now.
But 65,000 people entering the labor market are in fact “a fairly small number,” said Harry Holzer, a non -resident researcher in economic studies at Brookers Institute and professor of public policy in Georgetown.
The American economy adds around 200,000 jobs each month on average, said Holzer.
Stan Veuger, a principal researcher in economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, has noted that many people who accept the buyout offer are probably close to retirement.
“I don’t think you can compare this number of 60,000 to a real layoff of 60,000 people because so many people would have withdrawn anyway,” he told Bi.
And if they do not retire, many take the buyout will find a job elsewhere. “Those who conclude such an agreement are those who want to leave the workforce the most or who are most likely to find other jobs,” Orley Ashenfelter, Professor emeritus at Princeton, told Princeton.
The impact will be felt more, said Holzer, if hundreds of thousands of federal workers enter the labor market. He also said that the extent of affected jobs could grow, the Trump administration reducing federal expenses at all levels, which led federal entrepreneurs to lose work and organizations losing their federal funding.
“With this number, much faster, you can enter scenarios where you feel it on the national labor market, and perhaps even a little more in the DC region,” said Holzer.
The federal government dominates the employment of the DC region both directly and through the jobs of entrepreneurs. For this reason, the region is likely to see “a great negative impact if resignations really occur,” said John Abowd, professor emeritus in economics in Cornell.
Beyond the impact on the labor market, Abowd noted that the loss of federal workers could disrupt the function of the government.
“Chaos is the short -term consequence,” Abowd told BI. “In the longer term, there will probably be a serious deterioration in the quality of government services, in particular in activities where government services are taken for acquired: food security and drugs, transportation services, medical research, Defense research and development. “
Following a legal action tabled last week, a federal judge extended the initial deadline for employees to accept the buyout from Thursday from last week to Monday, when the American district judge George O ‘Tole in Boston will hear the arguments of federal unions saying that the offer is illegal.
businessinsider
