new York
Cnn
–
Some of the last cargo cargoes carrying Chinese goods without paralyzing prices are currently driving in American ports. Come next week, however, it will change.
The freight on the ships of China loaded after April 9 will take with them the president of the 145%price, Donald Trump, slapped the goods of this nation last month. Next week, these goods will arrive, but there will be fewer ships at sea and they will transport less cargo. For many importers, it is too expensive to do business with China.
However, China is still one of the most important business partners in America. This is where we get most of our clothes, shoes, electronics and firms, which feed household appliances, thermostats and everything that bips.
Companies make a difficult choice: continue to sell products from China to more than double their previous prices or stop selling these products. For consumers, this means that some products will be difficult to find or may be too expensive to buy.
“As of next week, it is when we start to see the arrivals of this announcement (price) on April 2,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, where almost half of the company comes from China. “The cargo that arrives in Los Angeles will be down 35% compared to a year ago.”
Imports to the United States during the second half of 2025 should drop by at least 20% from one year to the next, according to the National Federation of Retail. The drop in China will be even more striking: JP Morgan expects a drop of 75% to 80% of imports from there.
“If this is not easily replaced by imports from other countries, a collapse of this magnitude would increase not only prices but would also considerably disrupt supply chains,” said JP Morgan in his report.
This means less work, higher prices on shelves and less choice for consumers. Seroka says that the countdown has already started.
“Many large retailers have told us that they now had about an offer of six to eight weeks of inventory in their systems,” said Seroka. “American manufacturers and consumers will find difficult decisions in the weeks and months to come if politicians do not change.”
At the port of Shanghai in China, the largest cargo cargo sites are inactive. Maritime companies have started using smaller ships to move the cargo while demand is opposed. Despite this, China’s navigations to the United States fell 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and freight transfer broker.
“The companies that operate the ships, they have canceled a lot of navigations. They said, “Hey, we are not going to sail halfway. We are going to leave it here, ”said Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport. “There are a lot of ships just sitting there off the coast of China, waiting and waiting for an agreement.”
In March, the Port of New York and New Jersey became the most frequented port in the country while the retailers were loaded with loads before the prices. But this month, the volume should fall, said the port.
Twenty-five percent of the cargoes that enter the port of the East Coast arrives from China. But the port indicates that more goods come from Vietnam, Malaysia and Southeast Asia while retailers try to move production to avoid the prices of China.
Once the cargo has hit the American ports, the goods do not take as little as a few weeks to hit the shelves of the stores. And when the current inventory is exhausted, the more expensive prices articles will go to the shelves.
“There is a lot of concerns. Right now (retailers) are trying to understand their commands back to school and Christmas, and how and when they are going to place them,” said Jonathan Gold, vice-president of the supply chain and the customs policy of the national retail federation.
And although the largest retailers can store more inventory, small businesses do not have this luxury.
“Especially for small retailers who cannot absorb any price impact, they try to understand what their next steps are,” added Gold.
Americans are counting on China for thousands of products, everything, flat -screen TVs with baby strollers. American companies import more toys, clothing and shoes from China than any other country, according to the United States International Commerce Committee.
According to a new Gartner survey, a business research company, forty-five percent of the heads of the supply chain expect to transmit the higher cost of prices to their customers.
Seroka does not see the empty shelves coming – but he sees less selection.
“So, if you are looking for a certain type of pants, you can find all kinds of pants, but not the type you want. And the type you want….
But Peterson de Flexport is less optimistic.
“If that continues a few more weeks (the retailers) will sell through this inventory and in summer, you will have shortages and empty shelves,” he said.
With fewer cargoes expected in American ports, local savings will immediately suffer, said Seroka.
China’s activities represent 45% of the port of Los Angeles port, which is the most important part of any American port. Without this volume, there will be less demand for workers.
“I do not see mass dismissals at the port, but I see that a trucker who transports four or five containers today will probably transport two or three after next week,” said Seroka. “And the docker, which obtains overtime and double changes, probably works less than a full week of work, because there are fewer containers.
The American Trucking Associations called on President Trump to conclude agreements with key business partners, including Canada, Mexico and China to protect truck jobs.
“The longer the longer prices last, the more pain for truckers as well as families and businesses we serve,” said Chris Spear, president and chief executive officer of American truck associations last month. “Not only will the prices reduce cross -border freight, but they will also increase operating costs. The price of a new truck could increase up to $ 35,000, amounting to an annual tax of $ 2 billion and putting new equipment out of reach for small carriers. ”
Since the supply of the supply chain during the pandemic, retailers have worked to keep the production of China away in Vietnam and other Asian countries with manufacturing capacity. But Gold says that imports from these other countries are not sufficient to replace the drop in China’s cargo.
“It takes time, months, even years, to establish these new relationships. To ensure that the new suppliers … have obtained capacity, they have qualified staff, they have the right infrastructure. All test requirements that must be made for products from the United States, especially for children’s products, “said Gold. “It is not something that can happen overnight.”
