Voters in Poland go to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the presidential election.
The voting bulletin does not only concern the question of whether Rafal Trzaskowski, of the central civic platform, or the national preservative Karol Nawrocki, the Deux-Coureurs, will become the next president of Poland. There is much more at stake in this election.
The result of the presidential election will determine whether the pro-European and center-left government led by Donald Tusk can advance his plans, which were blocked by President Andrzej Duda since the government was elected about 18 months ago.
Although the Polish head of state does not have as much power as the French or American presidents, he has much more than the German president, for example, who has a largely representative role.
The Polish president, who is directly elected by the people and is the commander -in -chief of the armed forces, can oppose his veto to the government’s bills, has the right to a word to say in the country’s foreign policy and can propose new legislation.
Disappointment concerning the lack of progress in the reform
When the Tusk Coalition of the Coalition took power in December 2023 after eight years of national-conservative regime as part of the Jaroslaw Kaczynski law party, many posts had great hopes of reforming rapid democracy in the country.
The parts of the new government had promised to restore the rule of law, to liberalize the legislation on abortion and to introduce more rights for the LGBTQ + community during their electoral campaign.
They also wanted to reform public media in Poland and take into account politicians accused of corruption and abuse of power.
However, it quickly became obvious that most of the government’s reform attempts would be blocked by the country’s national-conservative president. Duda has either used her veto, or has referred bills to the Constitutional Court, full of supporters of the Pis.
For this reason, the national achievements of the Tusk government after 18 months in power were rare. This has led to disappointment and dissatisfaction across the country, including among those that traditionally vote for parties currently in government.
Which candidate has the government’s support?
This explains why Tusk chose to support his colleague member of the party and left Liberal Rafal Trzaskowski for the president.
Trzaskowski, who is mayor of Warsaw, is considered the candidate with the best chances of winning even if he has narrowly lost the last presidential election against Duda five years ago.
Despite the fact that in 53 years, he is considered relatively young, Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician.
He has already held the posts of the Minister of Administration and Digitization and the Secretary of State for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and was a member of the European Parliament. He was elected mayor of the Polish capital in 2018.
Trzaskowski belongs to the left wing of the Tusk Civic Platform Festival. It is favorable to a liberal abortion law which authorizes layoffs until the 12th week of pregnancy and withdrew the crucifixes from the offices of the town hall of Warsaw. He is also one of the few politicians in Poland to defend EU’s climate policy.
Before the first round on Sunday, he was ahead in the polls, even if his advance of the past few weeks had been reduced to a few percentage points.
What candidate does the president save?
Karol Nawrocki is his strongest opponent in the elections. Gdansk’s 42 -year -old historian is the head of the Institute of National Souvenir de la Poland.
Although officially an independent candidate, the right -wing activist has the support of the head of the KACzynski IP, who considered that Nawrocki would call on right -wing voters who do not normally vote IP because, unlike the former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, he was not part of the party structure.
But Kaczynski’s plan does not seem to work: Nawrocki questions worse than worse because even some party members do not know the candidate well.
His campaign was also struck by the affirmations of journalists according to which he had contacts in hell and, in early May, a scandal on a social housing apartment in Gdansk that his opponents claim to have bought by irregular means.
After a massive reaction, Nawrocki transferred the apartment to a Christian Christian organization which supports the homeless, while protesting at the same time of its innocence in the case.
During electoral events, Nawrocki criticized immigrants, the Green Agreement of the EU and Brussels. He calls for cuts to help in Ukraine and painted Germany as an enemy of Poland.
Support by Trump and Simion
The Nawrocki campaign team used its Republican contacts in the United States to get a photo opinion with US President Donald Trump in the Oval office earlier this month. Trump would have said to Nawrocki “you will win”.
George Simion, the far-right candidate who won the first round of the presidential election in Romania earlier this month, also went to Poland in a demonstration of support in Nawrocki.
Speaking together during a rally in the city of Zabrze in southern Poland on Tuesday, the two announced that they wanted to build a “fatherland Europe”.
“We do not allow ourselves to be centralized by the EU, and Poland and Romania are transformed into administrative districts (of the EU),” said Nawrocki.
Far -right candidate in third place in the polls
For a while, it seemed that Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate of the Far Confederation of Confederation and Independence, could constitute a threat to Nawrocki.
Several surveys in March made Mentzen eaten on the heels of Nawrocki or even exceed it. But it has since returned to just under 12%.
The 38 -year -old tax and entrepreneur has been on tour in the country since last fall, boasting that he organized more than 340 campaign events. It is particularly strong on social networks and has 1.6 million followers on Tiktok.
The Mentzen program is built on a fundamental criticism of the political situation in Poland – in particular health and retirement healthcare systems – and the EU migration policy and the green agreement.
The program also includes the right to have firearms and a radical prohibition of abortion, even in the event of rape. His radical slogans have attracted above all young people: a disproportionate number of young people of school age attend his events.
Election of runoff in two weeks of probable time
Unless the vote takes an unexpected turn, the race for the presidential palace will not be decided on the first round on Sunday, but in a runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki on June 1.
Even if the surveys have placed the liberal left -wing candidate in front, the victory for Trzaskowski is not inevitable.
Will people who voted for the ruling coalition parties will support the mayor of Warsaw on Sunday or will they stay at home? And for whom will the donors of Mentzen vote in the second round?
Tusk is likely to be on hook tents until the very last vote is counted.
This article was initially written in German and adapted by Aingeal Flanagan.
