Yesterday’s weaker US PMI data is still rippling through, but it also reflects a much better risk mood. Geopolitical fears have eased since the weekend, helping to see stocks rebound fairly well to start the week. In turn, risk currencies are improving, with the Aussie also helped by higher inflation figures earlier.
As seen here, AUD/USD rose to test a key technical level on the day. The pair is still up 0.5% at 0.6515 as it remains near the highs.
So what’s next for markets in general?
As we seek to put the whole Israel-Iran episode behind us, attention turns once again to the US data. Stocks will build on this to maintain this week’s momentum, with S&P 500 futures currently up another 0.35%. But we may have to wait until at least tomorrow, with advanced US GDP numbers for the first quarter in sight. Then on Friday there will be the US PCE Price Index to scroll through. As a reminder, this is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, so it’s one to watch.
For today, it’s all about digesting yesterday’s PMI data and sticking with the general risk mood. The dollar is giving up some ground, but we’ll see if that turns into something bigger after the gains earlier this month. Instead, keep an eye on USD/JPY as the pair currently remains very supported at 154.85.
In terms of data releases in Europe, the German Ifo economic survey for April is the main one to watch. But in all likelihood, today’s releases won’t do much to shake things up.
08:00 GMT – Germany April Ifo Business Climate Index
08:00 GMT – Switzerland April Investor sentiment UBS
1000 GMT – April CBI UK Trends, Total Orders
11:00 GMT – US MBA Mortgage Applications April 19
That’s all for the upcoming session. I wish you good days ahead and good luck in your trading! Stay safe out there.
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