The fall of Assad: a predetermined result

As the dust settled, Syria was under the control of a coalition of rebels, Damascus was in their hands and Assad had fled to Russia. The speed and intensity of the collapse of Syria shocked the world, but for Lieutenant-Colonel (res.) Dr. MORDECHAI KEDAR, member of the “Seeviénistes” movement and an eminent expert in the Middle East, he was not unexpected.

Dr. Kedar, whose writings on the legitimacy of the Assad regime go up decades, argues that the collapse of Syria was predictable. “Syria is a hollow country,” said Kedar, because “the people never believed in regime, and the army was not willing to die for that”.

His 2005 book Asad in Search of Legitimacy recounts the unsuccessful efforts of the Bathist regime to settle as a legitimate governing force in Syria. In his opinion, the Assad family has never won the legitimacy of their people, rather governing by force and repression.

This lack of legitimacy, explains Dr. Kedar, dates back to 1966, when the minority regime Allawite took control of Syria. With a Sunni Muslim majority, the Alawites were considered infidels. Allawite leaders, recognizing the lack of public support for their regime, understood the need to establish an iron fist dictatorship instead of guaranteeing their grip on power.

The abolition of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s, including the infamous Hama massacre in 1982, solidified the reputation of the Assad family for ruthless repression. However, Kedar maintains that this strategy has always been intended to fail. The regime foundation was intrinsically unstable because it has never had popular support.

The inevitable collapse of the regime’s regime was a consequence of this lack of legitimacy. However, the speed at which the rebels took control were helped more than a simple internal dissent. The timing was also crucial. The weakened state of Assad’s regime, after the Hezbollah war against Israel, had left it vulnerable. The opposition forces, many of which had been exiled to Idlib for years, were then proven to strike when the regime’s attention hesitated.

Rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nura, linked to Al-Qaeda), then launched a surprise offensive that quickly increased. Their fast victories in Aleppo, Hama and Homs were followed by uprisings from the populations of Druze and Bedouin in the south, culminating in the fall of Damascus. Despite their ideological differences, the rebels managed to unite to overthrow Assad. However, not all rebel groups share the same program. Some moderate groups even express a desire to work with Israel.

A rebellious chief even said that the real victory would be when the Israeli flags fly over the Iranian embassies in Damascus and Amman. This feeling reveals an interesting dynamic in rebellion: the desire to eliminate Iranian influence and Hezbollah in the region.

However, although the fall of the Assad regime may seem to be a victory for freedom and democracy, the future of Syria is uncertain. Syria remains a deeply divided country, with ethnic, religious and tribal groups historically in disagreement. For this reason, if Syria falls into the hands of Islamist groups, it could disintegrate in chaos. However, such a scenario may be preferable to unified Syria supported by Iran under Assad.

Israel is preparing for any results following the collapse of the regime, including the rise of extremist groups. The FDI has concentrated the forces in the heights of strategically vital Golan and has strengthened its positions on the Syrian border in anticipation of potential benefits.

Uncertainty surrounding the future of Syria has already prompted Israel to take preventive measures, because Israel would prefer to face the ISIS style militias on the strategic threat posed by a regime supported by Iran. Israel cannot afford to be taken without preparation, because it was October 7, 2023, when a surprise attack on Hezbollah put the country on alert.

Although the outcome of the rebellion in Syria is still to be determined, the fall of the Assad regime was almost inevitable. The lack of national unity of Syria, its sectarian divisions and the lack of legitimacy of the regime created a powder barrel which only needed good spark to ignite. The following, however, remains unpredictable.

That Syria emerges as a modern liberal state or that fails and fragmented remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the collapse of the Assad regime marks a turning point in the safety of the Middle East, with important implications for the wider region.