According to evidence provided to the Commons Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) last week, Russia has discovered an oil deposit in Antarctica, around ten times larger than the North Sea’s total production over 50 years. Much of the field is thought to lie in the Weddell Sea, just east of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the middle of the UK’s ‘cheese slice’ – the British Antarctic Territory.
In Antarctica, boundaries are only ‘claims’ rather than solid ‘claims’, but it is worth noting that Britain’s claims in the region overlap with those of Chile and Argentina. This is a perfect opportunity to Vladimir Poutine to start stirring up trouble – and it may have made the Falklands Islands the most valuable piece of real estate in the world.
Understanding why means understanding what Antarctica is like. In my experience, working there is a mixture of wonder at the great sadness of the place and having to be on top of your game while the weather does its best to surprise you. The trope that “you get all four seasons in one day” isn’t entirely correct. You get three – the bad ones. Sometimes the sun rises, providing a fleeting opportunity to take the most perfect photos, but it’s invariably just a tease: freezing winds are imminent.
That said, the location of these oil fields in the Weddell Sea is not the most difficult place to work. You are protected to a certain extent from the ocean swell that endlessly surrounds the continent by the Antarctic Peninsula, but also by the sea ice which dampens it even more. But the further south you go, the thicker the ice becomes, and by the time you get to the British base at Halley, you should be on ice. The irony of working there aboard HMS Endurance, named after Shackleton’s ship which became stuck in thick ice and crashed into this precise sea, was not lost on us. The fact is that working there is ultimately demanding and, to a large extent, that is why the non-exploitation part of the Antarctic treaty – which aims to maintain the region as a reserve natural resource dedicated to peace and science – was respected. Until now.
In addition to invading Ukraine, Russia is involved in numerous maritime gray zone activities around the world. One example is the smuggling of oil across the Baltic and elsewhere using uninsured and poorly maintained “black fleet” tankers. Continuing underwater activity around the submarine cables on which our economy depends is another. The Black Sea blockade is another, although it has been postponed for now. The Russian presence in western Yemen at the time the submarine cables were cut is another, as is the construction of military installations with China in the High North, and so on.
These activities are all designed to be difficult to counter (legally) and, if you decide to counter them, produce “with what?” as a quick response. In the case of its activities in Antarctica, Russia of course claims to be carrying out scientific research rather than oil prospecting. As Klauss Dodds put it, “Russia’s activities should be understood as a move to undermine the norms associated with seismic research and, ultimately, as a precursor to future resource extraction.” Saying they are seeking to extract resources is a far cry from actually doing so, but the direction is clear.
The next step in Russia’s gray zone strategy will surely be to involve Argentina. With their “slice of cheese” overlapping ours, collaboration there is all but a given and, diplomatically, it will bear fruit faster than oil itself. The ebb and flow of Argentine rhetoric professing interest in retaking the Falklands has been constant since 1982, although the combination of our defenses there and their aging army prevents most people from taking this seriously. But if they were emboldened by Russian diplomatic and possibly military assistance, with the added temptation of having “Las Malvinas” as a forward base for new Antarctic oil, it is not difficult to imagine them trying again. chance.
At that point, if they have to be defended, the question of “with what” comes up again. The Royal Navy is at its lowest ebb, with numbers and numbers creating tension at every turn. Whatever form the defense review takes after the election, this issue should be higher on the agenda than it has been in recent years. Promises of 2.5% of GDP by 2030 or whenever “the conditions are right” must be shelved now for cold hard cash.
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