The deadly earthquake of Myanmar deepens political disorders, say the experts

The Military Junta in power of Myanmar grabs the consequences of a deadly earthquake to regain control in the midst of an exhausting civil war. But a sustainable ceasefire remains unlikely, according to analysts.

The massive earthquake of 7.7 two weeks ago, one of the strongest to strike Myanmar in a century, rocked a nation already devastated by a brutal civil war which has moved millions and decimated its economy.

The number of official deaths has increased to 3,471 on Sunday, with thousands of people injured or missed. The predictive modeling of the US Geological Survey estimated the number of deaths to finally exceed 10,000 and economic losses to exceed the annual GDP of the country torn by the war, which amounted to $ 66.8 billion in 2023, according to the World Bank.

A few hours after the earthquake, the ruling junta declared the state of emergency in the hardest affected cities and published a plea for international aid – a decision which represents a striking contrast with the consequences of the Nargis cyclone which struck the Asian nation in 2008. Then, the junta had first rejected international aid.

This change in his response, described by some as “unusual”, aroused cautious hope for a political settlement between the junta and the resistance forces, because the previous natural disasters of the region had led to peace talks. In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami caused a truce agreement between the Indonesian government and the local rebels to facilitate rescue efforts.

However, analysts see little chance that a similar peace agreement is emerging in myanmar struck at disasters.

“The battle lines are engraved too deep, and there are almost no common reasons on which the junta and the opposition, including the ethnic armed groups at war, can come to the table for any significant dialogue,” said Angshuman Choudhury, an analyst of the foreign policy based in Singapore.

Any cease-fire statement will probably be “temporary and very vulnerable to be raped given tensions on the ground,” he said, expecting the junta “discreetly uses the consequences of the earthquake to degrade resistance capacities and gain the top on the battlefield”.

Last Wednesday, the soldiers declared a 20-day ceasefire of April 22 to support humanitarian efforts while warning that it “would respond accordingly” if the rebels initiated the attacks.

Myanmar has descended into a political and humanitarian crisis since 2021, when its soldiers have ousted an elected government, triggering a multi-Front civil war which moved 3.5 million and left its economy in tatters.

If anything, the earthquake can make myanmar “even more a faulty and violent state,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, principal researcher for Southeast Asia and South Asia to the foreign relations council.

“”The bad response of the earthquake – there is no way that the junta can have a decent response – will only strengthen the anger and disgust of the public in the face of the military in power, already disdained by a large part of the population, “said Kurlantzick, while” the opposition will be reinforced by people again, seeing the insufficiency of the junta by doing something other than people “.

Data location of armed conflicts and events (ACLED), which monitors world conflicts, ranked Myanmar as the most violent and dangerous place in the world last year.

About 90% of the country’s 55 million people were exposed to political violence, noted ACLED. Its inhabitants also lack sufficient access to electricity, communications, health care and education and are vulnerable to crimes, including human and drug trafficking.

The devastating earthquake struck at a time when the military junta had undergone defeats on the battlefield, losing control of substantial territories in Myanmar while her opponents advanced.

The consequences of the earthquake have prompted the junta to “recalibrate their priorities – to continue to conduct civil war or to focus on practical and humanitarian needs,” said Yen Zhi Yi, principal analyst of the National Security Studies of the School of International Studies by S. Rajaratnam.

Despite the temporary and regional ceasefire, “it is unlikely to open a large political space for the peace agreements, because it goes beyond humanitarian concerns,” she added.

Before the announcement of the ceasefire, the soldiers remained on the war foot and had carried out several air strikes in the earthquake areas, according to Amnesty International Reports.

The Junta also sought to slow down humanitarian efforts by maintaining close security measures and used its forces to block assistance supplies to tremble the areas with a stroke near the anti-government-controlled epicenter, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office on Friday.

In an incident highlighting the challenges of the delivery of aid in the midst of an in progress civil war, the junta said that her troops had shot from a convoy of the Chinese Red Cross which had failed to stop in a conflict area.

“The military junta has already shown through its continuous air strikes that it will favor the defeat of resistance on help in the event of a disaster,” said Scott Marciel, principal advisor at Bower Group Asia and former American ambassador to Myanmar.

However, the natural disaster prompted the head of the ostracized junta to engage with leaders of neighboring countries such as China, India and Southeast Asia, paving the way for a general election in December.

“The junta clearly uses the earthquake as a window of opportunity to strengthen its diplomatic references in the region”, seeking to assert itself as the only legitimate government in Myanmar, said Choudhury.

During a rare foreign journey after the devastating earthquake, the chief of the Junta, Min Aung Hlaing, avoided by most world leaders, was warmly welcomed by senior Thai officials when he visited the capital of Bangkok for a regional summit. On the margin line of the summit, he met Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss rehabilitation efforts after the land and strengthen bilateral ties.

China was one of the first to send assistance and help supplies to help myanmar recovery effort, promising 100 million yuan ($ 13.7 million) of supplies. The United States, a key player in the first efforts to provide aid after Nargis, promised a relatively modest humanitarian gifts of $ 9 million to the Southeast Asian Nation, according to the decision of US President Donald Trump to reduce foreign aid.

The charming offensive with other Asian leaders following the earthquake could offer an unexpected silver line to the junta to win a favor in the next elections.

“Supporting the elections hosted by the junta is equal to supporting a process of democratic transition,” said Choudhury, adding that foreign nations can see it as the junta “evolving towards a kind of civil government, although reality is very different”.

The promised elections have been widely criticized as an imposture to keep the military in power by proxies, since dozens of political parties have been prohibited. Min Aung Hlaing reportedly said at the summit last Friday that the elections would continue despite the disaster.