Business

The Dallas Fed cut the average PCE price index for July to 1.7% from 1.8% in June

  • 12-month truncated average: 2.7% versus 2.8% previously

Looking at the data, here are some notable changes:

  • Eggs: massive increase of 90.9% (annualized change over 1 month)
  • Window coverings: Sharp drop of -27.3%
  • Used cars: Significant drop of -25.2%
  • Jewelry: Significant drop of -20.4%
  • Natural gas: decrease of -7.7%
  • Medical services: Slight decrease of -2.2%
  • Electricity: Slight increase of 1.3%
  • Fresh milk: substantial increase of 25.1%

Movements in some of the heavier weightings:

  • Fixed dwellings occupied by their owner Evolution: +4.4% (annualized evolution over 1 month)
  • Non-profit hospital services to households Variation: -0.8%
  • Other meals purchased Evolution: +2.6%
  • Medical services Evolution: -2.2%
  • Fixed dwellings occupied by tenants and durable goods of owners Variation: +6.0%
  • Final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households Variation: +11.0%

The changes in this report can be very volatile, but they give a sense of what’s happening with prices. The most important one for me is used cars, which are really starting to struggle at the moment. There are also signs of inventory building at new dealerships.

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