The big weaknesses Biden and Trump will face on the debate stage: from the political office

Welcome to the online version of From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team on the campaign trail, the White House and on Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki analyzes the biggest weaknesses Joe Biden and Donald Trump will seek to address in the debate. Plus, correspondent Dasha Burns and producer Abigail Brooks travel to Erie, Pennsylvania, to check in on how Nikki Haley’s supporters view the general election.

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The big weaknesses Biden and Trump will face on the debate stage

By Steve Kornacki

Joe Biden and Donald Trump will each take the stage for Thursday night’s debate with glaring political responsibilities — and the possibility of mitigating or exacerbating them. Figures from two CBS News/YouGov polls released this month distill the main challenge for each.

Biden, 81, faces concerns about his age and the acuity of his mind. He may only be three years older than Trump, but voters are 10 times more likely to cite Biden’s age as a consideration:

View this graphic on nbcnews.com

This gap is due to distinctly different perceptions of each candidate’s mental acuity:

View this graphic on nbcnews.com

Voters are likely to have limited expectations for Biden’s performance on Thursday. So a lucid, nimble, energetic presentation, sustained for 90 minutes, could upend the way Americans perceive it — just as a confusing, hesitant presentation could cement existing concerns and give rise to new ones.

Trump, meanwhile, carries the weight of nearly a decade of controversy and inflammatory antics. And it shows when voters are asked to rate the behavior of each candidate. In the CBS News/YouGov poll from early June, 67% of voters said they personally didn’t like the way Trump behaved, compared to 51% who said the same for Biden. Among independents, those numbers jumped to 74% for Trump and 55% for Biden.

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That’s why, despite Americans’ deep doubts about him, Biden remains essentially tied with Trump in the polls. Simply put, much of the support for the current president is driven by antipathy toward the former president.

When voters were asked why they supported Biden in the mid-June CBS News/YouGov poll, 33% said it was because they liked the president, while 48% said that it was to oppose Trump. Among independents who supported Biden, 21% said it was because they liked the president, compared to 67% who said they opposed Trump.

The worst-case scenario for Trump is that this puts a ceiling on his support, that too many voters are simply too pissed off with him to support him, regardless of their opinion of Biden.

There is probably no type of performance Trump could put on on Thursday that would result in a significant change in his image. But in an election likely to be decided on the fringes, warming up even a small slice of these unenthusiastic Biden supporters might be all he needs. Then again, if Trump simply succeeds in confirming these reservations about him, that might prove to be all Biden needs.

Nikki Haley supporters still up for grabs in key states

By Abigail Brooks and Dasha burns

ERIE, Pa. — Nearly four months after Nikki Haley withdrew from the presidential race, many of her supporters are still without a political home.

That’s how Richard Speicher and Mary Gensheimer feel, especially after a “Republican Voters Against Trump” sign disappeared from their yard. They both voted for Haley in April during the Pennsylvania Republican primary, even though she had already ended her campaign.

“Trump is not a representative candidate of the Republican Party. He may be what they represent today, but as lifelong Republicans, we both come from a very different tradition,” Speicher said. “The only choice available was Nikki Haley.”

The couple represents a critical bloc of voters — in this key county located in a battleground state and across the country — who are up for grabs heading into a general election that could once again be determined on the margins. While many of these Haley voters will eventually return home and support the GOP ticket, others are planning to support President Joe Biden — or cast another protest vote in November.

Haley captured nearly 20 percent of the vote in Erie County in the April primary, six weeks after ending her candidacy. It’s a warning sign for former President Donald Trump, given Erie’s bellwether status: The county has voted for the state’s winner, and for the presidency as a whole, for the last four elections. Statewide, Haley received 16.4% of the vote, or nearly 159,000 votes in a state that Trump won by 44,000 votes in 2016 and Biden by 80,000 votes in 2020.

Since then, Haley has said she will vote for Trump in November. But not all of his supporters are ready to go that far.

The Biden campaign in particular has begun ramping up its outreach to Haley voters, running ads, hiring staff and relying on the efforts of volunteers.

For his part, Speicher said he plans to get a Biden sign to replace the one that disappeared.

“The Republican Party that I knew is dead,” Speicher said. “I just don’t know where I’m going next.”

Read more about what Haley voters think →

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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