Wall Street is preparing for a difficult report of delivery of Tesla vehicles next week.
Analysts are considering the potential that the first quarter delivery figures have been low for some time, because the sales data have soured and that the brand has become the focal point of the political debate in the first months of the Trump presidency.
Analysts have reduced their expectations in terms of sales and have reduced price objectives for stock, and even sustainable forecastists expect the pain.
Signs of low demand triggered investors’ nervousness this year. Tesla sales in Europe plunged 42% in the first two months of 2025, and sales in China dropped by almost 50% in February, while local byd rival saw sales.
Tesla deliveries experienced a two -digit drop in Europe and China in the first months of the year. Brandon Bell / Getty images
Tom Narayan, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he expected lower deliveries than Tesla in the first quarter. Friday, in a note, he said that the automotive company was on the right track to deliver 364,000 vehicles, down compared to the average estimate of 398,000. He also estimated that deliveries would have a 19% drop in the quarter in Europe and 40% to 45% for the quarter in China, a key market for Tesla.
Sales in January and February were probably affected by Tesla preparing to publish her updated model, said Narayan.
“We also expect a certain delay in demand since the vehicle as well as the new affordable model to come in the second quarter,” he added. Naryan reiterated his “outperformance” note for the action, although he reduced his course last week from $ 440 per share to $ 320 per share.
Others are more time.
Friday, in a note, Deutsche Bank analysts said they were considering a “major reset” of expectations for Tesla for 2025 and 2026. For the year, the bank expects deliveries to fall from 5% to around 1.7 million, assuming that Tesla begins to deploy its low-cost model in the United States, Europe and China later this year.
“Our point of view is that Tesla’s actions have been under pressure recently motivated by much lower automobile volumes, a broader deactivation of growth assets (for example, MAG 7), and to a certain extent, political / political uncertainty,” said the bank.
Analysts reiterated their rating “buy” for the action, but reduced their course target to $ 345 per share, against $ 420 per share.
Deutsche Bank also said that Elon Musk’s Tesla brand’s brand is a reason why the company was under pressure.
On Friday, meanwhile, HSBC also reduced its course objective for action. The bank reduced its objective by $ 165 per share to $ 130, which implies a drop of 50% compared to the levels of Friday.
Demonstrations struck Tesla dealers across the country and the used cars market was flooded from Teslas since Musk embarked on its cost reduction crusade with the Ministry of Government efficiency.
Analysts claim that Tesla’s low request is partly motivated by “brand damage” resulting from the role of Elon Musk in the White House. Andrew Harnik / Getty images
“On the negative side, the decline in musk’s incursion in politics and DOGE has raised problems of damage to brands and even vandalism, the supply is affected by the new change of model Y, demand is low in the United States and Europe, and Chinese competition continues to warm up,” wrote William Blair analysts in a note.
The company has reduced its delivery estimates for the quarter from 418,000 to 350,000 and reduced its estimates for the year by 1.94 million to 1.68 million.
Even some of the most loyal bulls of the company are preparing before next week report.
Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note that Musk’s participation in the Ministry of Effectiveness of the Government takes Tesla during a “very stormy” period.
He plans that the announcement of Tesla deliveries is an event “RIP The Band-Ad Off” for the stock, with deliveries potentially as low as 355,000, he said.
Ives reiterated his note to “outperformance” for the action and the price target of $ 550, which implies 52% of the increase in current levels.
“It continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to sail in this moment of brand tornado crisis and put on the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days to come that we see for history,” said Ives. “However, we believe that 1Q will be the low point and the street begins to examine these figures to better understand the delivery trajectory the rest of the year with a much stronger 2 hours, the key because the refreshments of the model are at the corner of the street.”
The Tesla action dropped from 2% on Friday afternoon to $ 267.02. The stock is down 30% for the start of the year.
