TD RBA Forecast: Mar +25bps, April break, May +25bps (May upside added), up to 3.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key rate yesterday:

TD Reserve Bank of Australia Outlook

via the folks at eFX.

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  • “The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points as expected, but today’s statement was more hawkish than previous statements. Speculation of an RBA pause has been building for months, but the statement today puts that on the back burner. There was no mention or reference to its Central Banking peers slowing down or even considering taking a break, adding to the hawkish tone,” TD notes.
  • “A 25 basis point RBA hike next month remains our view, but we now expect the RBA to take a break in April, with a final 25 basis point hike in May until our new terminal forecast of 3.85%,” TD added.

The hiking cycle so far:


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