T20 World Cup 2024 Scenarios – How Australia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh can qualify for the semi-finals

Australia’s 24-run defeat to India in the Super Eight stage of the 2024 T20 World Cup means its semi-final chances now depend on the outcome of the final group match, between Bangladesh and Afghanistan. For Australia to qualify, Bangladesh must beat Afghanistan, but by a margin of less than 62 runs if they bat first (assuming a total of 140). If Bangladesh continue, they will need to reach 141 in at least 12.4 overs for Australia to finish with a higher run rate.

This means Bangladesh, whose net run rate is currently languishing at -2.489, need a huge win on Monday night to overtake Australia’s -0.331. A win by 62 runs or more and a chase of 141 in 12.3 overs or more will catapult them to second place in the points table. (If they level the scores and then win with a six, they can push the chase to 13.1 overs.) If Afghanistan scores 160, Bangladesh can stay ahead of Australia by chasing them in 12.5 overs or sooner (if they score 161), or in 13.3 overs if they level the scores and win with a six.

For Afghanistan, the equation is much simpler: a victory will secure second place in the group and a place in the semi-finals, while a defeat will eliminate them. Indeed, even with a Super Over defeat, their NRR will only improve to -0.433, which is still lower than Australia’s -0.331.

The second-place qualifying team from this group will face Group 2 leaders South Africa in Tarouba in a night match on Wednesday, while India will face England in the second semi-final in ‘a day game Thursday at Providence. .