Storm Éowyn causes hurricane-like destruction in Ireland » Yale Climate Connections

The same low pressure system that brought historic snowfall to the U.S. Gulf Coast earlier this week intensified into an extremely powerful extratropical cyclone in the North Atlantic, called Storm Eowyn under the European international naming system. these storms. Éowyn swept through Ireland and the northern United Kingdom on Friday January 24, causing heavy wind damage, a destructive storm surge and widespread power outages.

The severe windstorm brought the strongest sustained winds and strongest wind gusts ever recorded in Ireland. Sustained winds of 135 km/h (84 mph) with gusts to 183 km/h (114 mph) were reported between 4 and 5 a.m. local time at Mace Head on the west-central coast of ‘Ireland. According to the Irish weather service met.ie, the country’s strongest winds were sustained at 81 mph (131 km/h), with gusts to 113 mph (182 km/h), a record set in Limerick in 1945.

⚠️🌬️ Satellite animation shows the storm #Eowyn very aesthetic and its very hollow center (939 hPa), leading to #winds up to 184 km/h, the new absolute record for Ireland (previously 182 in Limerick in 1945). pic.twitter.com/MXodiMygKo

— La Chaîne Météo (@lachainemeteo) January 24, 2025

The highest gust record of 182 km/h set in 1945 at Foynes Co. Limerick was provisionally broken during #StormÉowyn pic.twitter.com/9loiOz96l4

– Met Éireann (@MetEireann) January 24, 2025

Winds at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station were measured at a standard observing height of 10 meters (about 33 feet), on a tower located right on the edge of the ocean. This tower was only installed in 2003, so it’s possible the station measured even stronger winds during the 1945 storm.

Sustained winds of 10 minutes at 84 mph are characteristic of a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane. The damage reported in Ireland and the United Kingdom is indeed characteristic of a hurricane, and Storm Éowyn may well becoming the second billion-dollar weather disaster on Earth in 2025, along with the Los Angeles fires. At the height of the storm, power was cut to at least 725,000 customers in Ireland – almost 30% of the country’s customers – as well as almost 100,000 customers in Northern Ireland and 20,000 in Scotland, according to the Associated Press.

Galway Aquarium in Ireland is flooded following a storm surge caused by #StormEowyn (accelerated)

📹 Matt Hawkins, Aquarium Director pic.twitter.com/Gf4vkQfA0k

– Volcaholic 🌋 (@volcaholic1) January 24, 2025

Waves up to 66 feet (20.1 meters) and low pressure of 939 mb

A central pressure of 939 mb (hPa) was measured at buoy M4 off the northwest coast of Ireland as the center of Éowyn passed overhead, and some truly huge waves were measured at buoy M3 off the southwest coast: significant wave height. of 41 feet (12.6 meters) and a maximum wave height of 66 feet (20.1 meters).

A follower reported a @metoffice A weather buoy washed up on Reenroe Ballinskelligs beach in Kerry today after #StormÉowyn
ODAS 62 appears to be printed on it, anyone know where it was deployed? Thanks to Roisin for the photo. pic.twitter.com/NAKu7JT0sA

– Carlow Weather (@CarlowWeather) January 24, 2025

The Aran Islands (population 1,300), located about 20 km (12 miles) west of the Irish coast, were worst hit by the storm. A team of Notre Dame scientists led by Andrew Kennedy installed accelerometers on more than 30 rocks on the islands’ ocean cliffs to study the impact of large waves on the coast. In an email, Kennedy told me he expected waves from Storm Éowyn to be a “big driver” of the rocks, but real-time data was not available.

Climate change and European windstorms: high uncertainty

We can expect climate change to lead to notable changes in almost all types of storms in the future, as significant changes in ocean heat and atmospheric circulation patterns are underway. In particular, it is possible that the record ocean waters currently in place over the North Atlantic have injected additional energy into Éowyn, thereby increasing its winds.

However, climate-related changes in the behavior of winter extratropical cyclones like Storm Éowyn over the Atlantic have been difficult to distinguish from natural variability. The latest IPCC climate report says there is “limited evidence” that such changes have been observed. This sixth assessment report, published in 2021, placed “low confidence” in the idea that “the observed intensity of extreme winds becomes less severe in low and mid latitudes, while becoming more severe in high latitudes. at the pole of 60 degrees. They predicted that “by the end of the century…the number of extratropical cyclones associated with extreme winds will decrease significantly in winter in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with the projected decrease being greater above the Atlantic, while they increase considerably whatever the season in the southern hemisphere.

The most devastating windstorms could tend to move towards northern Europe, including the British Isles, and away from southern Europe as the climate warms and currents- Privileged jets are moving north. A 2024 modeling study, “Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over 20 years^th Century”, concluded: “On average, we find that the British Isles, Western Europe and Scandinavia are at increased risk of damage from winter windstorms under future climate conditions, the multi-model ensemble median projecting an increase in average annual damages of +16%, +17% and +13% respectively. There is a moderate decrease in damage in Central Europe (−3%) and more marked decreases in the Iberian Peninsula (−28%), Mediterranean (−15%) and Eastern Europe regions. (−35%).

Record snowfall on the Gulf Coast following Storm Éowyn

The weather conditions leading up to Éowyn date back to a strong upper-level disturbance and weak surface low that combined with cold, dry surface air to produce the blockbuster snowstorm that swept through the area. upper U.S. Gulf Coast on Tuesday, January 21. This disturbance joined the broader polar jet stream mid-week over the northwest Atlantic and then developed into a powerful upper low in tandem with the rapidly strengthening surface low. accompanies as the two approached Ireland on Thursday January 23. Figure 2 shows the four-day evolution as manifested in surface weather characteristics (maximums, minimums and precipitation).

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