Stock market crash: what investment professionals say after the historic rout

The trade war crushed the actions this week.

The market has endured its worst week since 2020, the S&P 500 losing almost 7% in the last five days of negotiation, while the NASDAQ 100 has slipped into the bear market for the first time since 2022.

Here is what the pros say about the decline – and what could come after.

Hug for a recession in the United States

Bet_noire / Getty, Jim Lin / Getty, Susanwoodimages / Getty, Tyler le / Bi

The prices seem to have pushed the US economy even closer to a slowdown, according to John Hussman, president of Hussman Investment Trust.

Hussman said that his company’s recession gauge, called Hussman’s recession’s warning composite, enlightened a positive signal on April 1, the day before Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” prices in the world.

This signal, in combination with other signs of a weakening economy, argues that a slowdown happens, he said.

“The announcement of Wednesday’s tariff only makes the risk of recession that have been developing for months,” Hussman wrote in a note to customers.

JPMorgan told customers that he had increased his risk of 60%recession, against his previous estimate of 40%.

“American disruptive policies have been recognized as the greatest risk for global prospects all year round,” the bank wrote in a note on Friday. “We therefore emphasize that these policies, if supported, would probably push the United States and perhaps the world economy in the recession this year,” he added later.

“The Trump administration’s actions this week have the potential not only to switch the United States in a recession, but to devastate the world economy,” wrote Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO of Bockersock Capital Partners, in a note. “Other countries, including China, are already starting to retaliate against American prices, and that reprisals will slow global growth.”

High rate drops could happen

Images Kevin Dietsch / Getty

The Fed could react to economic weakness by reducing interest rates even more quickly than the expected markets, according to Jason Pride, head of the investment strategy in Glenmede. On Friday, four to five rate drops seek to be the “new reference for 2025”, he wrote in a note.

“It is far too early to see impacts downstream of trade policy on the job market and the Fed is unlikely to wait for this type of evidence before adjusting its process of reflection on the appropriate position of monetary policy,” added Pride.

The Fed is likely to intervene “as soon as possible”, according to Hassan Fawaz, president of the Givtrade financial firm.

“We believe that the federal reserve will be forced to quickly reduce rates to mitigate the risk of a full -fledged recession in the event that trade tensions are not resolved,” said Fawaz.

“The Fed will probably bring a certain stimulus in the coming months. But it is a shock focused on government and not a central shock based on banks,” said Seema Shah, the main global strategist for the management of main assets.

Friday, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, indicated that the central bank was in waiting mode because the prices could increase inflation.

“We are well placed to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustment to our political position,” said Powell at an event in Virginia.

Related stories

Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know

Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know

Expect more pain for stocks

Spencer Platt / Getty images

Investors believe that the prospects for actions have deteriorated significantly in the event of a prolonged trade war.

“The Haussier market is dead, and it was destroyed by self-inflicted ideologists and injuries,” wrote Bowersock’s Hill. “We have revised our end -of -year goal on the S&P 500 from 6000 to 5700.”

Wedbush Securities said he had seen special challenges to come for the artificial intelligence trade, which has exploded for most of the last two years.

“The concept of bringing the United States back to the” days of manufacture “of the 1980s with these prices is a bad scientific experience that will cause in our opinion a bad scientific experience, the theme of the AI ​​revolution and the global industry,” analysts wrote in a note on Friday.

“The world of technology (and consumers) depend on the supply chain to manufacture and deliver these products to consumers and put the best technological products in the world at the lowest prices. These are facts that cannot be debated,” added the company.