Some European launch managers still have their heads in the sand

Eleven years ago, at a space conference in Singapore, a panel discussion became legendary in some sectors of the space industry for what it revealed about European attitudes toward the new SpaceX.

The panel included representatives from a handful of launch companies, including European company Arianespace and American launch company SpaceX. At one point in the discussion, the moderator asked Arianespace’s representative – its head of Southeast Asia sales, Richard Bowles – how the European institutional firm would respond to SpaceX’s promise to reduce costs of launch and reuse with the Falcon 9 rocket.

“What I’m discovering in the market is that SpaceX seems to be selling dreams above all, which is a good thing. We should all dream,” Bowles responded. “I think a $5 million or $15 million launch is a bit of a dream. Personally, I think reusability is a dream. How will I respond to a dream? My answer to responding to a dream is, first of all, don’t wake people up. »

To be fair to Bowles, at the time of his remarks, SpaceX had only launched the Falcon 9 five times as of mid-2013. But his condescension was nonetheless something to behold.

Later in the discussion, Bowles added that he didn’t believe launching 100 times a year, which SpaceX was starting to talk about, was “realistic.” Then, in a moment of great paternalism, he turned to the SpaceX executive on the panel and said, “You shouldn’t present things that aren’t realistic. »

In response, SpaceX senior vice president Barry Matsumori calmly said he would let his company’s response manifest through its actions.

Actions speak louder than words

Eleven years later, of course, SpaceX East launch more than 100 times per year. The company’s internal price for launching a Falcon 9 is significantly less than $20 million. And all of this is possible thanks to the reuse of the rocket’s first stage fairings and payload, each of which has proven capable of flying 20 times or more.

You would think that in the decade since, European launch officials would have learned their lesson. After all, last year the continent had to resort to launching its prized Euclid space telescope on a Falcon 9 rocket. This year, with Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket still not ready after numerous delays, several Galileo satellites have been launched and will be launched on the Falcon 9 rocket.

Some officials took note. In a frank comment last year, European Space Agency chief Josef Aschbacher acknowledged that the continent was facing an “acute” launcher crisis, amid Ariane 6 delays and a surge in power of SpaceX as a launch competitor. “SpaceX has undeniably changed the paradigm of the launch vehicle market as we know it,” Aschbacher wrote. “With the dependable reliability of Falcon 9 and the exciting prospects of Starship, SpaceX continues to completely redefine the world’s access to space, pushing the boundaries of what is possible as we go.”

But it seems that not everyone got the message.

Next month, the Ariane 6 rocket is finally expected to debut. It will probably be a success. Europe has excellent technical launch capabilities. But from day one, the Ariane 6 launcher will cost significantly more than the Falcon 9 rocket, which has similar capabilities, and will offer no possibility of reuse. It will certainly meet Europe’s institutional needs. But it probably won’t disrupt the market, nor realistically compete with a fully reusable Falcon 9.

Who really needs to be woken up?

And what about Starship? If and when SpaceX can deliver it to market, the next-generation rocket will offer a fully reusable booster with five times the lift capacity of the Ariane 6 rocket for half the cost or less. How can Europe hope to compete with this? The European Space Agency’s director of space transportation, Toni Tolker-Nielsen – who works for Aschbacher, it should be noted – said he wasn’t worried.

“Honestly, I don’t think Starship is going to be a game changer or a real competitor,” he said in an interview with Space News. “This giant launcher is designed to transport people to the Moon and Mars. Ariane 6 is perfect for this task if you need to launch a four or five ton satellite. Starship will not eradicate Ariane 6 at all.”

In a sense, Tolker-Nielsen is right. Starship will not change the way Europe sends its small and medium-sized satellites into space. Manufactured and launched in Europe, the Ariane 6 rocket will be a workhorse for the continent. Indeed, some European officials are going so far as to push for legislation requiring European satellites to be launched on European rockets.

But saying that Starship won’t be a game-changer represents the same ostrich attitude Bowles displayed a decade ago with his jokes about not waking up deluded dreamers. Looking back, it becomes clear that the dreamers were neither SpaceX nor its customers. Rather, these were European officials who had lulled themselves into thinking that their commercial launch dominance would persist without innovation.

While they slept, these managers ignored the rise of reusability. They decided that the Ariane 6 rocket should resemble its expendable predecessors, with solid propellants. Meanwhile, following the advent of the Falcon 9, almost all new rocket projects have incorporated a significant element of reusability. Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, is no longer alone in saying that companies must pursue reuse or perish. Almost everyone is.

Maybe someone should wake up Tolker-Nielsen.