Singapore data due early today, along with central bank policy statement

First quarter GDP data will be expected from Singapore at 00:00 GMT, 20000 US Eastern Time.

  • One-year GDP is expected to be 3.0%, previously 2.2%
  • previous q/q is 1.2%

The data is accompanied by the April 2024 policy statement from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

As a reminder, the main monetary policy tool of the MAS is its exchange rate policy. It adjusts its dollar exchange rate (SGD) instead of changing domestic interest rates like most other economies.

It manages the SGD exchange rate against a basket of currencies of Singapore’s major trading partners.

  • sets the trajectory of the policy band of the nominal effective exchange rate of the Singapore dollar (S$NEER)
  • this serves to strengthen or weaken the local currency relative to those of its main trading partners

S$NEER is a combined index composed of bilateral exchange rates between Singapore and its major trading partners.

  • is an exchange rate weighted by trade

MAS allows S$NEER to move up and down within the policy range (exact levels are not disclosed). If it moves out of this band, the MAS intervenes by buying or selling Singapore dollars.

The policy range has three parameters that the MAS can adjust:

  • slope, level and width
  • the slope adjustment will influence the rate at which the Singapore dollar strengthens or weakens
  • adjusting the level, or midpoint, of the policy range allows for an immediate strengthening or weakening of the S$NEER,
  • widening policy range allows for greater S$NEER volatility
  • these are the parameters that are examined

The MAS unexpectedly announced in October 2023 that it would move to quarterly meetings to assess monetary settings starting in 2024. It only met twice a year, in April and October (but could, and did, meet from time to time, more often). , if conditions demanded an immediate change in parameters, such as in 2022, when high inflation triggered two off-cycle moves).


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