If you’re vaccinated and wondering how much you should worry about getting sick with a breakthrough case of COVID-19, Dr Ashish Jha says you don’t really need to worry.
The dean of Brown University School of Public Health set out his reasoning in a Twitter thread on Tuesday night. While the daily risk of breakthrough infection among people vaccinated in the United States is approximately 1 in 5,000, Jha said that these estimated 36,000 daily breakthrough infections may sound “bad,” but shouldn’t be so worrisome. if you are vaccinated.
“What do 36K infections mean in terms of hospitalizations, death? ” he wrote. “Among unvaccinated people, about 1 in 20 infections results in hospitalization and 1 in 200 results in death. Vaccines reduce everyone’s risk by 90%. This means that every day, 180 vaccinated people are hospitalized and about 18 die. “
The doctor said if he looked at the case fatality rate, or CFR, which represents the percentage of all recorded infections resulting in death, the number is around 0.12% for those vaccinated, or 40 deaths per day. .
“So how serious are 18 (or even 40) deaths per day? Jha wrote. “After taking into account the proportion of the vaccinated population, it is lower than the daily deaths in a [average] flu season. ”
Daily deaths during a typical flu season are around 100, and he pointed out that COVID-19 breakthrough deaths can likely be further reduced by giving booster shots to vulnerable people, such as the elderly. or the immunocompromised who experience most breakthrough deaths. infections.
Regarding the “Long COVID”, Jha said so far that the evidence suggests the condition is “much less likely” in vaccinated people who have experienced a breakthrough case, compared to those who have not. vaccinated and contracted the virus.
” At the end of the line ? COVID deniers have spent much of the past year saying COVID is no worse than the flu, ”he wrote. “It was nonsense and we all knew it. Now… those terrific vaccines have turned the risk of poor COVID outcomes into something milder than the typical flu. And it’s a good thing.”
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