Sharp increase in aging and lifestyle-related diseases increases health care burden

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The number of people falling seriously ill or dying prematurely from conditions such as high blood pressure and obesity has increased by 50 percent since 2000, highlighting the huge challenge that aging and lifestyle-related diseases pose to services. overburdened health workers.

The findings highlight a sea change from an era when infectious diseases and poor maternal and child health were among the biggest threats, to an era where health systems must deal with “metabolism-related risk factors”, including high blood sugar and high fat levels. which have led to an increase in “non-communicable” diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

The survey, released Thursday by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, also reveals that life expectancy is expected to increase by almost five years between 2022 and 2050, reaching just over 78 years old. years in sub-Saharan Africa contributes to promoting the convergence of longevity between the richest and poorest regions.

The expected global increase would be significantly slower than in the decades before the coronavirus pandemic. Between 1990 and 2019, global life expectancy increased by 7.8 years and by 19.5 years between 1960 and 1990, according to the study data. The number of years lived in good health is also expected to increase, but at a slower rate, with an increase of 2.6 years expected by 2050.

According to the study, between 2000 and 2021, the number of healthy life years lost increased by 49.4 percent due to poor health and premature deaths resulting from metabolism-related factors. Health problems among people aged 15 to 49 are increasingly attributable to these factors, the researchers noted.

In a paper in The Lancet, published alongside the findings, Professor Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said “future trends could be very different” as factors such as increasing obesity, he increase in substance use disorders and the increase in pollution and transmission of infectious diseases caused by climate. The changes have harmful consequences for public health.

Murray suggested that to maintain progress, “adequate health workforces, policymakers who adapt to new situations, and proactive strategies to deal with new threats as they emerge” would be needed.

The reversal in life expectancy trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic – when delays in emergency care or treatment of chronic illnesses were common – had been “remarkable given the almost continuous pace of progress on a global scale otherwise observed over nearly seven decades.” “, he noted.

Although the full impact of the pandemic will likely not be known for several years, it serves as “a stark reminder that progress in health care is precarious,” he added.

The study found that the largest declines in disease burden were linked to maternal and child health, unsafe water, sanitation and handwashing. These figures suggest that public health measures as well as humanitarian programs in poorer countries have been successful over the past three decades, according to the researchers.

Murray told the Financial Times that “we have, with the exception of Covid, seen progress”, partly through investment in preventative measures. This was particularly true in poorer countries thanks to international initiatives such as the Gavi vaccine alliance and anti-malaria programs.

However, this preventative approach has been less evident in “the middle- and high-income world,” he said. “There has been progress, but there has been less anticipation of where we are going and less effort to anticipate these changes in these countries,” he said.

Data visualization by Keith Fray