It started last month with the arrest of a Russian deputy defense minister. The head of the ministry’s personnel directorate was subsequently brought to justice. This week, two other senior military officials were arrested. All face corruption charges, which they have denied.
The arrests began after President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term and transferred his longtime ally, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, to a new post.
This immediately raised questions about whether Putin was reasserting his control over the Defense Ministry amid the war in Ukraine, whether a turf battle had broken out between the military and security services, or whether some other scenario was unfolding. played behind the walls of the Kremlin.
A look at what’s behind the arrests and why they’re happening now:
HOW SERIOUS IS CORRUPTION IN RUSSIA?
Corruption scandals are not new and officials and senior civil servants have been accused for decades of taking advantage of their position.
In Russia, corruption functions as both a carrot and a stick. It’s a way to “encourage loyalty and get people on the same page,” as well as a method of control, said Sam Greene, director of democratic resilience at the Center for Democratic Resilience. analysis of European policies.
Putin wants everyone to have “a skeleton in their closet,” security expert Mark Galeotti said during a recent podcast. If the state has compromising information on key officials, it can choose who to target, he added.
Corruption “is the essence of the system,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
The war in Ukraine led to an explosion in defense spending, which only increased opportunities for corruption.
WHO WAS ARRESTED?
Former Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov – the first official arrested in April and the highest-ranking so far – oversaw large military-linked construction projects and had access to huge sums of money. These projects included rebuilding parts of the destroyed port city of Mariupol in Ukraine.
The team led by the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny claimed that Ivanov, 48, and his family owned elite real estate, enjoyed lavish parties and trips abroad, even after the start of the war. They also claimed that Ivanov’s wife Svetlana divorced him in 2022 to avoid sanctions and continue living a luxurious life.
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that the recent arrests did not constitute a “campaign” against corruption but rather reflected ongoing activities in “all government agencies.”
Peskov and Ivanov were once part of an embarrassing episode that was caught on camera. Navalny’s team shared 2022 footage of the Kremlin spokesperson celebrating at a birthday party for Ivanov’s ex-wife. In the video, Peskov, with Ivanov at his side, wears a watch estimated at $85,000.
In April, the Investigative Committee, Russia’s main law enforcement agency, reported that Ivanov was suspected of accepting a particularly large bribe, a criminal offense punishable by which could lead to up to 15 years in prison.
Since then, other arrests on corruption charges have taken place: Lieutenant General Yury Kuznetsov, head of the Personnel Directorate of the Ministry of Defense; Major General Ivan Popov, career soldier and former commander-in-chief in Ukraine; and Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, deputy chief of the military staff. Shamarin is the deputy of Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff.
A fifth ministry official was reportedly arrested Thursday: Vladimir Verteletsky, who headed a division of the ministry’s defense procurement department. He was accused of abuse of power resulting in damages worth more than 70 million rubles (about $776,000), the investigative committee said.
Separately, the deputy head of the federal penitentiary service in the Moscow region, Vladimir Telayev, was arrested on Thursday for large-scale corruption, according to Russian reports.
WHY IS THIS HAPPENING NOW?
The arrests suggest that “really egregious” corruption within the Defense Ministry will no longer be tolerated, said Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Shortly after his inauguration, Putin replaced Shoigu as defense minister with Andrei Belousov, an economist. Peskov said the increase in Russia’s defense budget must fit with the country’s economy as a whole.
Peskov said Russia’s defense budget represents 6.7% of gross domestic product. This is a level not seen since the Soviet era.
“Some feel this money needs to be spent more wisely,” Connolly said.
Before his death in a still-mysterious plane crash last year, mercenary leader Eugene Prigozhin led a brief rebellion against the country’s military rulers, claiming they had mismanaged the war and withheld weapons and supplies. ammunition to his forces.
Belousov’s appointment is “a grudging acknowledgment from the Kremlin” of the need to pay attention to these issues, Gould-Davies said.
It is also essential that the war is managed correctly because the Russian economy depends on it. Russians earn higher salaries thanks to the booming defense sector. Although this has created inflation problems, it allows Putin to continue to deliver on his promises to raise living standards.
Greene said the government must “pursue the war in order to keep the economy going,” but must also ensure that the costs – and corruption – are no higher than necessary.
Connolly said it was also possible that Belousov, the new defense minister, would eliminate his predecessor’s associates and send a message that “things are going to be done differently.”
Popov’s case may be different. He fought in Ukraine and was suspended in July 2023 for criticizing the leadership of the Defense Ministry – as Prigozhin did – and blaming it for the lack of weapons and poor quality of supply lines that caused numerous Russian casualties.
He may now have to face the consequences of these criticisms.
COULD THIS BE A TURF BATTLE?
It is unclear whether the Kremlin or Russian security services, particularly the State Security Service (FSB), are behind these arrests.
It is possible that officials far enough from Putin were caught in the middle of a turf war unrelated to the appointment of the new defense minister.
The security services, Greene said, could attempt to “push back” the military dominance seen since Putin ordered the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Although the Kremlin denies that any purge is taking place, “if Putin didn’t want it to happen, it wouldn’t happen,” Greene said.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
More arrests are likely as the new defense minister wants to show “there is a price to pay” for corruption in order to bring it under control, Connolly said.
Greene added that it’s also possible that “entrepreneurial” investigators think launching a criminal case against a general is a great opportunity for career advancement.
However, because corruption is so endemic, it could cause panic throughout the system.
If officials are arrested for behavior that was previously allowed even if it was illegal, that could move the “red lines,” Greene said.
If the arrests continue or spread beyond the Defense Ministry, it could prompt officials to “rush for the exits,” he said, and that is something the Kremlin wants to avoid .
Because the system is built on corruption, Greene said, attacking it too harshly could cause it to “collapse.”
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