Scientists discover reason that makes deadly heatwave in Asia 45 times more likely. And it could happen again.

Hundreds of people have died across Asia in recent weeks as the region endured scorching temperatures. And a new study has determined a key factor in how it all happened.

Last month, many parts of India experienced temperatures well above triple digits. The country’s meteorological service says that heat waves are not uncommon between March and June, with May being the “peak month” for extreme weather events. In Bhagdora, India, over the past month, temperatures reaches almost 115 degrees Fahrenheit, the Indian Meteorological Department issued a red alert, meaning intense heat was expected to persist for more than two days and there was a very high probability of heat-related illnesses.

Elsewhere in the country, it was so hot that schools were closed, a problem people also face in the Philippines. Thai authorities also asked residents to stay indoors when possible to avoid the heat, as dozens of people had already died from heat-related illnesses. April heat killed at least 28 people in Bangladesh, five in India and three in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

And according to the World Weather Attribution organization, it all comes down to two words: climate change.

“The heatwave has exacerbated the already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and those living in refugee camps and conflict zones in West Asia,” says a new study from the ‘organization. “…Extreme heat has forced thousands of schools to close across South and Southeast Asia.”

The researchers said that while the type of heat experienced during this period “is not very rare”, it is only being amplified by climate change, fueled by global warming largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

West Asia should benefit from a extreme heat event once a decade, and in the Philippines this probability is even lower, about once every 20 years when El Niño is not playing. In South Asia as a whole, extreme heat is not common.

“An extremely hot April like this is a somewhat rarer event, with a 3% chance of occurring in any given year, or once every 30 years,” the researchers said , adding that observations and data models show that human-caused climate change is creating a “large increase in probability and intensity.”

“In the Philippines, the change in probability is so large that the event would have been impossible without human-caused climate change,” they said. “In West Asia, climate change has increased the likelihood of this event fivefold.”

Average April temperatures in South Asia, which the group has studied twice in the past two years from other extreme events, “are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius warmer” , they observed.

“It looks like a broken record – yes! But the heat is still underestimated, under-recorded and extremely deadly,” said Friederike Otto, who is part of the World Weather Attribution study. social networks. “The world is not prepared for climate change today, let alone in the future.”

Extreme heat is “becoming a silent killer,” Ko Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in April.

“Heat-related mortality is largely underestimated and therefore the true scale of premature deaths and economic costs – in terms of reduced labor productivity, agricultural losses and strain on the electricity grid – is not accurately reflected in the statistics “, she said.

The World Weather Attribution report came a day before another WMO report that found this April was the hottest on record and the 11th consecutive month of record temperature in the world.

The average surface air temperature last month was 15.03 degrees Celsius, or about 59 degrees Fahrenheit, more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times. Scientists have warned that if the planet experiences persistent temperatures at this threshold of 1.5, it could have significant impacts on weather events, leading to global issues around food and water availability, migration and migration. . Infrastructure.

“The record temperatures were accompanied by high impact weather events “- including intense heat in many parts of Asia,” the WMO said. “The heat has also had a significant impact on agriculture, causing damage to crops and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several parts of the country, affecting million students.

It will take years of this continued exceedance of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels for the planet to officially signify that humanity has failed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and launch the world into an even more disastrous climatic era. However, 11 months of record heat – and potentially beyond – indicate “early signs of imminent danger of exceeding the long-term limit”, according to the United Nations.

“Every fraction of a degree of warming counts. With each additional increase in global warming, changes in extremes and risks become greater,” says the international agency. “…We must lower the curve of global emissions, as well as the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas, now. A wide range of solutions exist.”

Arshad R. Zargar contributed to this report.