Sales of frozen pizzas are a sign of a recession or a stock market crash

Do you want a frozen pizza lately? You are not alone. It may be because the weather is warmer, maybe you are Jones for a lazy treat, or maybe the stock market is declining and the prices throw everything in chaos.

Uncertainty in the economy has people looking for recession indicators – not only a potential weakness of the labor market or withdrawals of spending, but also more specific signals that suggest that dark times are close. Consumers on board, for example, buy more lipstick as a still affordable luxury, or they are starting to pick up smaller bottles of alcohol. Another particular sign, they feel pinched by the economy: they buy more frozen pizza, especially the kind of fantasy.

“This happens each kind of slowdown in the economy – there is an increased demand for premium frozen pizzas, frozen frozen pizzas,” said Craig Zawada, visionary director of Pro Holdings, a price optimization company. It’s a bit counter-intuitive, he added, because you would think that consumers are more concerned about costs, but it is actually a job that makes sense because “they replace the world to have a good frozen pizza at home”.

So, the next time you find yourself dwelling in the frozen section, know that your desire to Digiorno could be due to an economic anxiety.

When people feel pinched – economically, existentially – they turn to the Frozen section of the grocery store. In 2009, in the middle of the great recession, sales of frozen food increased by 3.1%. When the pandemic struck, sales of frozen pizzas increased almost $ 1 billion compared to the previous year, from $ 5.8 billion in 2019 to $ 6.6 billion in 2020, according to the ibisworld market study.

“Frozen Pizza has always been a good category,” said Alexander Chafetz, an investment banker who makes the consumption space. “But that was developed, I would say that during the pandemic, when people did not work, the money was tight, and you had to feed a family at night. The frozen pizza is a very economical way to feed your family.”

Michael Ryan, owner of Tree Tavern Pizza, a frozen pizza company that operates from New Jersey, told me that during the pandemic, its sales “crossed the roof”. He said that pizza as a category is done well during slowdowns, but Frozen has the additional “convenience” factor. “It is in the freezer, ready to heat. No tilting of the delivery man or the cold and soggy pizza,” he said.

Right now, with everything that is happening in the country and in the world, people are very nervous, so we will gravitate towards more comforting foods.

Although growth has since slowed down the comfortable pace in a comfortable way, people always buy more frozen pizzas, thanks in large part to inflation. The frozen pizza industry in the United States generated $ 6.5 billion in annual income in 2024, by Ibisworld, and remains well above its pre-pale level. Tighter budgets always make this $ 10 frozen pie seems quite attractive.

Although there is an increasing quantity of competition in the alley of frozen food at the grocery store, Frozen Pizza is still a star player, said Phil Lepert, analyst of the food industry and editor -in -chief of Supermarketguru.com. The boxes take up a lot of space and are relatively attractive to display. They are also practical for stores to offer promotions and discounts on “due to the quantity of different pizza brands that are there, I would say that every week when I look at the store circulars, there is at least one pizza on sale,” said Lempert. “These companies are still in the running to give promotions to the retailer.”

Pizza is a comforting food that people tend to want in difficult times like these. “Right now, with everything that is happening in the country and in the world, people are very nervous, so we will gravitate towards more comforting foods, whether mac and cheese, be it hot dogs, be it a pizza,” said Lepert.

In mid-conversation, I realized that I could make an accidental adaptation via comforting foods lately, because I have pizza (house, which was terrible) and cheese macaroni (fortunately, the box) in the past few weeks, none of which is in my normal rotation.

It also probably helps the case of Frozen Pizza that quality has improved considerably in recent years, and there are many more varieties offered. You have healthier options, with crusts of cauliflower, for example, or you can indulge (slightly) with premium ingredients such as hot honey, prosciutto or basil. Restaurant brands have launched their own frozen offers so that people can get something that has a taste for experience at home. Ryan stressed that home freezers have also become bigger, which makes it refueling.

Now, as this good old economic anxiety is moving again, people look to eat at home and prepare for the frozen grocery store.

David Portalatin, Vice -President Director and Advisor to the Food Industry in Circana, a market study company, said that in the past year, consumers have chosen to buy a larger share of their meals in retail establishments – which means grocery stores, clubs, online – than catering operations, such as restaurants.

“It’s just a reflection of several things,” he said. “One is a bit of response to inflation and the fact that food inflation far from her home is still accelerating faster than at home. But it is also this kind of longer -term trend of a consumer more centered on the house.”

When the pandemic settled, many people had to stay at home. Once the pandemic calmed down, they were delighted to come back there and go to the restaurants they had avoided for months. But this muscle stay at home is even stronger than it was pre-countryic. More people work at home, where it is easy to whip something in their own kitchens – Ryan said that even if it may seem silly, “the fact that many people have never come out of their pajamas has helped stimulate sales.” Consumers have also become more used to spending fun evenings – it turns out that this whole practice in 2020 means that they have improved in home entertainment.

Consumers become more sensitive to prices because they opt for cheaper family -size offers, such as pizza.

“People seem to be more comfortable at home. They want to make their own consumption at home,” said Chafetz. “People are happy to be at home, nest. I think people nest when they are nervous, and therefore I think there is a lot of things.”

“Empirical evidence suggests that consumers often” exchange “frozen pizzas or delivered during recessions. Consumers become more sensitive to prices because they opt for cheaper and family offers, such as pizza,” said Alex Fasciano, analyst at CFRA Research, in an email. He noted that Pizza Restaurants marketing is also anchored around value, such as Domino’s recently launched call to consumers more concerned about the budget: the “Emergency Pizza” promotion (a free pizza) and the “Best Deal Ever” promotion (an agreement of $ 9.99).

But again, it is not necessarily any old article exchanged that people buy as they start to worry about where the economy is heading, frozen or other pizza; This is the most pleasant thing. This reflects this global attitude among American consumers that we always want to treat ourselves, even if we reduce in other areas. Many people complete their budgets somewhat, but they also spring up for treats, whether it is a fancy latte, a weekend getaway or a frozen pizza they say is healthy, which may not look Also Too strong in ingredients.

“In general, in the past year, we have seen the headwind in restaurants and the back wind to prepare meals at home because they are more affordable. However, there are all kinds of examples where we will choose the more premium offers,” said Portalatin. “When we go to retail, we may not choose the lowest price offer, recognizing that we are already saving money by cooking at home.”

Consumers have been fighting listening for some time now. Increased concerns about prices have led to a feeling of acute fear among many Americans on prices, economic stability and even the safety of their own employment. This is the type of mixture that could make this red baron with an additional home.

William Curtis, a principal research analyst at Ibisworld, said they did not plan a point induced by the economy in frozen pizza sales like those in 2009 or 2020, in part because it is not clear what will happen in the global economy. But in the event that things are really starting to go south, “the logic of buying the frozen pizza when you have less money still does not keep,” he said.

Curtis added that Frozen Pizza faces more competition for consumers’ dollars than 15 years ago, with more frozen options available, not to mention the proliferation of delivery services that allow you to drop all kinds of food at your door. Obviously, cooking at home is even cheaper, especially when you count all costs and tips, but many consumers are always slight follies. “There are many consumers who are ready to pay for these costs just for the convenience of delivery,” he said.

Ryan, from Tree Tavern, said that he was not really concerned about competition from delivery or restaurants, because he considers Frozen as his own thing. His clients are faithful and he focuses on the quality and authenticity he hopes to please people in good and bad times. It only sells pizzas with natural cheese, which helps maintain the stable price and gives customers the opportunity to dress pizza as they wish. “I give to people who ask me why I do not offer more fillings,” he said. “I say joking:” Buy your fucking pepperoni! “”

If the economy takes a worse turn, customers can stick to cheese.

Emily Stewart is a main correspondent at Business Insider, writing on business and the economy.