Sailors to sign Víctor Robles

Mariners sign outfielder Victor Roblesaccording to Ty Dane Gonzalez of the Locked on Mariners podcast on Jonathan Clase earlier today, opening up an active roster spot for Robles, but they’ll need a matching move to open up a 40-man roster spot.

Robles, 27, was once one of the Nationals’ top prospects but has struggled repeatedly in recent years, both with disappointing performances and injury absences. The Nats finally decided to move on last week and designated him for assignment. They apparently explored trades but couldn’t find a deal they liked and ultimately released Robles. The Nats remain responsible for his $2.65 million salary, meaning the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated portion of the league minimum of $740,000 for any time spent on the roster, which amount being subtracted from what the Nats pay.

That makes it a fairly low-risk move for the Mariners, who are surely hoping Robles can return to his previous career form. A few years ago, he was one of the top prospects in the entire league, with Baseball America ranking him fifth in 2018 and eleventh the following year.

He seemed to follow through on that hype in 2019, when he was just 22 years old. He hit 17 home runs for the Nats that season and stole 28 bases while providing elite defense in center field. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.7 wins above replacement that year and his strong performance helped the club reach the playoffs, ultimately winning the World Series.

Unfortunately, his performance dipped after that season and he failed to get it back on track. He hit just .220/.293/.315 during the shortened 2020 season and produced fairly similar numbers in the two full seasons that followed, leading to a .216/.291 batting line /.306 during the 2020-22 period.

The club’s fortunes also faded around this time and the Nats entered a rebuilding phase. That should have given Robles plenty of chances to turn things around, but his health didn’t cooperate. He played in just 36 games last year due to back spasms in his lumbar spine and missed about a month of the current campaign with a left hamstring strain. He managed to show encouraging signs last year, hitting .299/.385/.364 despite back issues, but has produced a brutal .120/.281/.120 line so far this year.

Despite all the difficulties, Robles is still young and could stage a comeback. As mentioned, he was hitting well last year. That hasn’t continued this season, but he won’t maintain a .176 batting average on balls in play and perhaps it’s a good sign that he’s drawn walks at a high rate of 15.2% this year. That’s in a small sample size of 33 plate appearances, but it’s more than double his career rate of 6.2%, so it could be a good step forward even if he regresses a bit.

The Mariners currently have an outfield and designated hitter mix consisting of Julio Rodriguez, Luc Raley, Dominique Canzone And Mitch Haniger. It is possible that Robles could be used on the short side of a platoon. The right-handed hitter slashed .262/.353/.373 against lefties and .226/.293/.349 against righties, leading to respective wRC+ counts of 101 and 72. Raley and Canzone are both lefties with notable platoon divisions. Raley has a 119 wRC+ against righties and 84 otherwise, with Canzone’s numbers at 86 against lefties and 65 against righties.

The M can use Robles to protect Raley and/or Canzone from some lefties while perhaps using Robles for pinch running duties or as a late game defensive replacement. For his part, Robles will have the opportunity to reinvent himself with a chance for a change of scenery before hitting free agency this winter.