A retired general and war strategist is pushing for a change in Ukraine’s strategy after returning from a grim visit to the war-torn country.
“The most important takeaway from my visit was the confirmation that Russia now has strategic momentum in the war,” said Mick Ryan, a former Australian major general, in an article published Friday for The Interpreter, a published in partnership with the Lowy Institute based in Australia. .
Russia has overcome the “shock of its early failures,” he said, drawing his observations from recent conversations with government and military officials, think tanks and journalists. The Russian army changed its war capabilities and the defense industry was revived.
“Now,” Ryan said, “it appears capable of generating the human, material and information resources necessary to subdue Ukraine in a way it was not capable of when it began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.”
“Russia is a more dangerous adversary today than it was two years ago,” he wrote. “This calls for a change in the way war is fought.”
Ukrainian troops aboard a BWP infantry fighting vehicle prepare for combat near Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, March 17. Jose Colon/Getty Images
First, Ukraine’s partners need to change their thinking, and for Ukraine, that means coming up with a vision of victory that it can implement.
Another problem concerns strategic communications. Ryan noticed a major shift in focus from Ukraine to other conflicts. Ukraine, he argued, must make its case to reach Western media and challenge Russia’s claims of expected victory.
The Kremlin has made an ongoing effort to influence Ukraine’s partner countries with its rhetoric and, in doing so, has led some countries like the United States to believe that the war is a distraction from the “real” problems facing the country. should face instead of helping Ukraine, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported last month.
“Ukraine must discover a new voice that explains the importance of its defense, why Western support is vital and that Russian talk of inevitable victory is wrong,” Ryan said, adding that “even if the fight against Russian disinformation activities are the responsibility of all democracies. , Ukraine’s strategic message must evolve. »
Russian army soldiers board their armored vehicle to take up positions and fire flamethrowers towards Ukrainian positions at an undisclosed location in Ukraine in a photo released by the Russian army in April 2024. Press service of the Russian Defense Ministry via AP
He also said that during his trip, a Kiev official told him that there was no clear plan for how Ukraine would win the war.
Ukraine’s victory depends on the aid it receives as well as its defense strategy. Ryan said NATO and other partner countries should consider changing their perception of support from “defending Ukraine” to “defeating Russia in Ukraine.”
U.S. officials have made it clear that Russia has the advantage. She has rebuilt her wounded army and is cultivating clear advantages on the battlefield.
Earlier this month, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Russia had “almost completely reconstituted militarily” and Gen. Chris Cavoli of the U.S. European Command supported that assessment Wednesday, adding that “Russia’s overall capability is still very significant and they intend to increase it.”
Cavoli also said that the current Russian artillery advantage over Ukraine is 5:1, but could reach 10:1 in a few weeks while Ukraine waits for American help.
Troops from the Ukrainian Da Vinci Wolves battalion train for the April 8 assaults. Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
Although Ukraine and its international partners still have work to do, Ryan said kyiv has made immense progress during the war, including targeting Russian ships in the Black Sea and oil refineries in the country.
Ukraine’s ability to adapt to new threats and emerging challenges has allowed it to focus on new research and manufacturing capabilities. Ryan highlighted in his article the importance of the development and use of drones in Ukraine.
“Ukraine is now producing hundreds of thousands of small drones as well as thousands of large drones with increasing range and larger warheads,” he said.
Commenting on the strategic strikes, Ryan said “this capability, improving in scope and effectiveness, will be a key element of future Ukrainian operations.”
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