- For Russia, the war in Ukraine and the fighting in the “gray zone” beyond are two sides of the same coin.
- Destabilizing Africa would facilitate the Russian campaign in Ukraine, believes the Kremlin.
- The KGB’s successors, however, had a less than stellar record.
Even as Russian bombs bombard Ukraine, Moscow’s mercenaries and spies are trying to set much of the rest of the world on fire.
“Russia is using unconventional methods to expand its influence, evade containment, destabilize and disrupt its adversaries – and is making progress in several directions,” warns a report from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute. This includes covert operations in Europe, mercenaries operating across Africa, and establishing ties with Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe.
For Russia, the conventional war waged in Ukraine and the unconventional “gray zone” war waged throughout the world are two sides of the same coin. “It is the conventional threat of escalation that deters retaliation against unconventional activities, thereby expanding the scope of what Russia can do,” RUSI said. “Conversely, it is the unconventional operations of Russian special services that aim to create conditions for the successful application of conventional military force.”
So, for example, destabilizing Africa – and diverting Western attention and resources – would facilitate the Russian campaign in Ukraine, the Kremlin believes. All this means that Russian “special services” – spies, assassins and propagandists – will continue their efforts.
Revolution and subversion were the economic model of the Soviet Union and later Russia. “The Russian model has been remarkably consistent for decades,” RUSI noted. “The overall approach is to use information operations and active measures to polarize a target population, mobilize factions in favor of allied elites, and paralyze support for opposing elements of a country’s leadership. Intelligence operations human rights are used to attempt to capture elites by offering assistance to politicians who support Russian interests. Finally, violence can be used to escalate political tensions to the point of crisis, or in other contexts to isolate a elite captured.
For example, in 2016, Russian military intelligence recruited criminal gangs to attempt a coup to prevent Montenegro from joining NATO (the attempt ultimately led to the imprisonment of several Montenegrin agents and politicians). In February 2022, Moscow attempted to spark street protests that would “justify Russian military intervention, with the help of collaborators within the Ukrainian government, paving the way for Russian agents recruited within parliament and the state Ukrainians to take power,” RUSI said. And in Moldova, in 2022 and 2023, Russia’s FSB security services hoped the protests would provide a pretext for pro-Russian leaders to call for military intervention (although “the poor performance of Russian weapons in Ukraine” caused hesitation these leaders, noted RUSI).
Aerial view of the building of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, also known as the GRU, in Moscow, Russia. Getty Images
“Create crises”
Unfortunately for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the KGB’s successors have a poor record. The 161 Intelligence Specialist Training Center – the shadowy sabotage, subversion and assassination unit of the GRU, or Russian military intelligence – has racked up numerous failures over the past decade, including a coup Failed statehood in Montenegro in 2016 and attempts to foment violence in Ukraine. and Moldova to justify Russian military intervention.
“The reasons for the failure were consistent,” said RUSI analysts Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds. “Poor operational security leading to the plan being revealed to national security services and the disruption of its implementation; and an inaccurate assessment by Russian special services as to the extent of their influence in these countries.” Additionally, many European countries expelled Russian diplomats and spies after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Inept operations – such as the botched assassinations of GRU defectors in Britain – have also not help.
Undaunted, Russia has rebuilt its capacity for unconventional warfare, or “active measures.” To create a support network for its agents in Europe, it shifted from relying on Russian businessmen and expatriates to the Russian mafia and recruiting foreign students to Russian universities.
“As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia has an interest in creating crises further afield,” RUSI said. “The Balkans present a particularly serious set of opportunities for such ventures. Russia also has an active interest in destabilizing Ukraine’s partners, and with the upcoming series of elections in Europe, there is a wide range of “opportunities to exacerbate polarization.”
Meanwhile, Russian state-sponsored mercenaries are expanding their efforts in Africa and the Middle East, providing military support to dictators and warlords, from Libya and Mali to Sudan and the Central African Republic. The infamous Wagner Group – a private military company – appears to be sunk, with its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin having opposed Putin before dying in a mysterious plane crash. Instead, Russia now offers a “regime survival program” – delivered via a GRU expeditionary force of mercenary groups such as Convoy – to support its clients against threats from Islamic rebels and rival factions.
“The Kremlin, through the GRU, now seeks to build a “Roscolonial Entente” – a group of states that actively seek to help Russia, while becoming increasingly subordinate to Russian influence – displacing Western interests across Africa and the Middle East.”, according to RUSI.
At the same time, Ramzan Kadyrov, the powerful and ruthless leader of the Russian republic of Chechnya, is trying to expand Moscow’s influence among Muslims in Central Asia and the Balkans. “Russian official propaganda and networks of hidden influence operating in Muslim countries convey a romantic image of Kadyrov as a defender of Islam, opposing Western heretics who try to destroy traditional values,” RUSI said .
Despite this, Russia has become the target of Islamist terrorist groups like ISIS-K, who have claimed responsibility for the gunmen who killed more than 140 people at a concert in Moscow on March 22.
Interestingly, RUSI experts concluded that the West’s best defense against Russian unconventional warfare is not to refute Moscow’s endless stream of propaganda and fake news. “Countering disinformation – while important – is far less consequential than breaking Russia’s access to and influence over elites, as well as its apparatus of support for active measures. This can be achieved through the denunciation and arrest of its agents, intelligence agents and activities. »
However, the West must be careful not to become as repressive and paranoid as its enemy. “As many of Russia’s unconventional operations are doomed to failure, the fight against Russian unconventional warfare must rely on careful, selective, and intelligence-driven targeting,” the study emphasizes. “This is why it is essential to have a broad understanding of Russian forms and methods; this prevents a state from jumping into the shadows.”
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He holds a master’s degree in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter And LinkedIn.
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