The update evaluation of DDIS threats comes as US President Donald Trump is trying to end the war in Ukraine, who entered his fourth year later this month.
The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukrainian conflict stops or becomes frozen, working on the hypothesis that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with several countries at the same time.
In six months, update projects, Russia could wage a local war with a neighboring country, while in the two years, it could launch a regional war in the Baltic Sea region. In five years, it could launch a large-scale attack against Europe, provided that the United States does not get involved.
The agency notes that it has not taken into account any possible increase in NATO defense capacities.
Trump urged NATO members to increase their defense expenses to 5% of GDP, more than double the current objective, and suggested that the United States could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies do not pay their way.
In 2024, Trump said that he “encouraged” Russia to attack a member country of NATO which did not meet its financial obligations.
Politices
