NEW YORK (AP) — Roki Sasaki can sign with Major League Baseball teams during a nine-day window starting Wednesday, an unusual free agency with repercussions for Latin American teenagers whose unofficial deals worth millions are on hold pending its decision.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are considered the favorites to sign Sasaki, with the Toronto Blue Jays being another suitor.
A prized 23-year-old right-hander, Sasaki could have earned a nine-figure major league contract if he had stayed healthy and waited until the end of the 2026 season to be assigned by his Japanese club and join the MLB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed this path and signed a $325 million, 10-year contract with the Dodgers in December 2023, a record total for a pitcher.
Because Sasaki is under 25 years old and has not played six seasons of Nippon Professional Baseball, he is classified as an international amateur by MLB. That means he’s limited to a minor league contract, subject to strict spending caps put in place by MLB and the players’ association. The system was introduced in 2012 through collective bargaining and a A strict cap on spending was added in 2017.
Why will Roki Sasaki’s contract impact Latin American teenagers?
Players residing outside of the 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico and Canada are grouped together for baseball’s international amateur free agency system, and Sasaki joins the 2025 group made up primarily of 16-year-old players – particularly players born between on September 1, 2007 and August 31, 2008. The signing period opens Wednesday morning.
Sasaki has a limited release window to sign with an MLB team due to a separate 45-day release window mandated by the MLB-NPB agreement. This means he must sign before 5 p.m. EST on January 23, otherwise his rights will remain with the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese Pacific League.
Most international amateur free agents are Latin American teenagers. Last year, 546 international amateurs signed from the Dominican Republic, 365 from Venezuela, 52 from Mexico and smaller numbers from Panama (26), Colombia (24), Curacao (11), Bahamas (nine ), Nicaragua (seven). ), Australia and Taiwan (six each), Aruba (five), Brazil and Japan (two each) and Costa Rica, Germany, Haiti and Uganda (one each).
The class of 2025 can’t officially sign a contract until Wednesday, but handshake deals are common in countries like the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Venezuela — in some cases deals made years ago with players as young as 14 years old promising millions to children from poor backgrounds.
Each team’s bonus pool ranges from approximately $5.1 million to $7.6 million. Landing Sasaki could take every penny — and would almost certainly force a team to forgo handshake deals to free up space from its bonus pool. For these jettisoned players, finding another suitor could be difficult since other teams likely also have handshake deals for huge percentages of their pools.
Last year, 290 contracts were finalized the day the window opened. Clubs appear to be delaying making some deals this year in order to gain room to pursue Sasaki and could attempt to delay deals until 2026. Players could also preemptively change their plans. Baseball America has announced that Dominican shortstop Darell Morel will sign with Pittsburgh rather than the Dodgers.
What are the bonus prize pools?
Each team has a capped pool it can spend each year on international amateur free agents, with amounts determined by the previous year’s major league team’s record, spending on top free agents and other factors.
For 2025, eight teams have the highest allocation, approximately $7.6 million: the Athletics, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle and Tampa Bay.
Six clubs have about $6.9 million: Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Twelve teams have about $6.3 million: Atlanta, Boston, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, the New York Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, San Diego, Texas, Toronto and Washington. Houston and St. Louis have about $5.6 million, and the Dodgers and San Francisco are on the low end with $5.1 million.
Starting Wednesday, teams will be able to make trades to increase their signing bonus by up to 60% from their initial figure. The allocation traded must be in increments of $250,000, with the exception that a team may deal its entire remaining allocation in a single trade.
Why would a team spend their entire budget on Sasaki?
Sasaki is an elite talent who has already proven himself in a top professional league and international tournaments. If he were a professional free agent, he could make hundreds of millions. But like Shohei Ohtani in 2017, playing at the highest level is more important to Sasaki than maximizing his first MLB contract.
Pitching with Statcast tracking during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki threw 21 of 66 pitches over 100 mph in his start of group stage against Czech Republicpeaking at 101.9 mph.
Twenty-six of 64 pitches eclipsed 100 mph during a four-inning outing during the semi-final against Mexicoincluding a strikeout of big leaguer Randy Arozarena on a leadoff 101.8 mph pitch.
Sasaki was 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 18 games last year, striking out 129 batters in 111 innings during a season limited by shoulder inflammation and a record 7-4 with a 1.78 ERA in 15 starts in 2023, when he dealt with an oblique injury. . He has a career record of 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA over four seasons with the Marines and pitched a perfect game against Orix in April 2022.
If Sasaki is drafted to a major league team for the 2025 season, which is likely, he would earn the minimum of $760,000 when he is in the big leagues. He could become eligible for arbitration after the 2027 season and free agency after the 2030 season.
Due to the release system, the Marines will receive a relatively small release fee: an amount equal to 25 percent of Sasaki’s signing bonus. Ohtani experienced a similar system when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels for a $2.315 million bonus before the 2018 season.
Arriving early worked well for Ohtani
Sacrificing money in favor of an earlier MLB start, Ohtani had salaries of $545,000, $650,000 and $259,259 (in pandemic-shortened 2020) in his first three seasons. He earned $3 million, $5.5 million and $30 million during his three years of arbitration eligibility, then accepted a Record $700 million, 10-year contract with Dodgers before the 2024 season.
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