Roki Sasaki signs with Dodgers: MLB experts discuss his fit and fallout

By: Will Sammon, Dennis Lin, Fabian Ardaya, Tyler Kepner and Eno Sarris

For some Major League Baseball teams, the race for Roki Sasaki couldn’t be measured in just a few months. This lasted for years. One of those teams, the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, concluded that chase Friday night by landing Japan’s star pitcher.

The Dodgers established themselves as early favorites and maintained their position despite their rivals the San Diego Padres becoming one of three finalists, alongside the Toronto Blue Jays, who once again must accept missing a front-line free agent.

Our experts weigh in on one of the biggest moves of the offseason.

---

Dodgers fit for Sasaki, although it may be imperfect

Shortly after Sasaki’s Instagram post was published, several club officials from one of the other two finalists said they still felt like the odds were against them.

So, surprise, surprise, right? The reality is that the Dodgers always seemed best positioned to land Sasaki. They bragged about Japan’s star power. They configured a roster capable of running a six-man rotation with several starting aces and optional relievers. And they have strategized all of their international bonus spending around Sasaki over the past two years.

However, from the beginning I heard that player development would play a key role for Sasaki. The Dodgers consistently produce quality young players. But they are having trouble keeping pitchers healthy. This is a concern. And that’s something Sasaki will have to answer. Considering how much money Sasaki left on the table by choosing to play in MLB as soon as he did, it’s paramount that he stays healthy before taking his chances in free agency – this which won’t happen again for a few years.

Scouts and executives described Sasaki as reserved, somewhat quiet and seriously committed to his craft. They wondered how it would perform in a large market. Los Angeles is a big market. But the club’s other megastars can shield him from the spotlight. — William Sammon

Adding Sasaki is a step forward for the Dodgers to realize their ambitions in Japan

The Dodgers presented a grand vision, hoping to channel their mass of resources and invest them in a market in which they have already made inroads. This surprised no one, after committing a combined $1 billion to Japanese superstars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. , the landscape of Dodger Stadium has changed. The Dodgers brand thrived, exceeding the franchise’s expectations even after winning the World Series. “Our business,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said earlier this winter, “is very healthy.”

If Los Angeles’ goal was to corner the Japanese market — and that is among its stated goals — then the signing of Ohtani and Yamamoto provided a solid foundation for a story that included the signings of Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda , Kenta Maeda and others. The signing of Roki Sasaki was an achievement and a good deal to add. The Dodgers have coveted Sasaki for years, reserving the most available cap space in the 2024 international signing class in case Sasaki arrives in Major League Baseball before his 25th birthday. When that day came and Sasaki was instead part of the 2025 class, the franchise cleared its books. His decision to land in Los Angeles seemed predetermined because, in many ways, it seemed like the obvious choice. — Fabien Ardaya

Despite all his talent, Sasaki has some question marks

First things first: Every team in baseball would love to sign a pitcher with the upside of Roki Sasaki to a minor league deal. He would make the top 10 on any list with his high-velocity fastball, devastating splitter, and elite per-inning numbers in a league as competitive as Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan.

That said… Sasaki doesn’t come without a few question marks.

Indeed, his strikeout rate over the past three years in Japan is the best of any Japanese pitcher who has reached the majors. But it’s also true that that same rate — which is extremely powerful when it comes to predicting a pitcher’s future — fell last season, to fifth among players in the league. His strikeout rate of 21.6 percent last year would have ranked north of that posted by Shota Imanaga in the three years before his arrival and south of that Japan saw with Masahiro Tanaka.

His slightly worse season in 2024 came with a downsizing. His fastball has lost 2 miles per hour on average, and while at just under 97 mph the gas remains impressive, the pitch is not in elite shape and may be more reliant on that speed than d other fastballs (like Imanaga’s high-pitched example). The Dodgers can counter this by changing the shape or helping him develop a sinker and/or cutter, to give him multiple fastballs to confuse hitters.

Sasaki also doesn’t spin the ball well. His spin rates are below the MLB median across the board, so his breaking balls have been inferior to his split finger for most of his career. When we saw him at his best during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, he was throwing his slider at 89 mph and the lack of spin didn’t matter much. Last season this pitch was under 84 mph and it didn’t perform as well. Spin isn’t something you can train easily, but he might be able to get the speed back on the slider.

The splitter is key, and it’s a wonderful pitch. He should function as his primary out-pitch and give hitters fits. No notes here.

Roki Sasaki’s splitter might be the best pitch in the world. Lord. pic.twitter.com/DR8NE6jkiQ

-Jacob Brownson (@brownsonjacob2) January 14, 2025

Overall, his combination of strengths and weaknesses presents few possible comparable pitchers. Sasaki could be a high-speed Kodai Senga, or he could present himself as a cutting-edge version of Kevin Gausman. Neither has thrown a plus ball thus far, but both have been excellent pitchers at their best. With Sasaki’s age, he has the chance to improve beyond these two competitions and carve his own path. — Eno Sarris

A crushing outcome for the Padres, a franchise in full transformation

The Padres were already going through a deflated winter, what with their complete lack of major league moves and a legal dispute between members of late owner Peter Seidler’s family. Now their closest and most hated rival has had an offseason of all time. Again.

Friday’s overwhelming development doesn’t necessarily mean the end for San Diego. Just a few months ago, the Padres nearly toppled Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. But the Padres arguably needed Sasaki’s combination of low cost and No. 1 starter more than anyone. They hoped – for months, even years – that he would not end up with their main adversary.

With those dreams now dashed, the Padres face a much tougher path to return to the playoffs in 2025. And the long-term future of a franchise weighed down by bloated contracts looks more precarious than yesterday. — Dennis Lin

Another star in the NL sky – and a dream rotation for LA

It’s crazy to think about the rotation the Dodgers could put together next season – especially in the context of what they just did. Last fall, the Dodgers won the World Series with Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and an opener against the Yankees. Now look.

It never works out that well, especially for the Dodgers, who have a dark trend of turnover attrition as of late. But in theory, this could be their 2025 rotation (in alphabetical order, because they’re all aces):

Tyler Glasnow
Clayton Kershaw
Shohei Ohtani
Roki Sasaki
Blake Snell
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

And that’s before we get to Ben Casparius, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack, Dustin May, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone – and probably the ghost of Dazzy Vance too.

The problem, though? I wish Sasaki had chosen the Toronto Blue Jays, who remain everyone’s favorite bridesmaid.

The National League was already deeper, and this winter its members poached even more stars from the American League: Juan Soto (from Yankees to Mets), Corbin Burnes (from Orioles to Diamondbacks), Kyle Tucker (from Astros to Cubs ) and Justin Verlander (Astros at Giants). Hell, even longtime AL skipper Terry Francona came out of retirement to manage the Reds.

Then again, superteams are also fun because the stakes are fascinating. The Dodgers continue to push themselves ever higher on their pedestal – so they will either end baseball’s quarter-century streak without a repeat champion, or consider themselves a failure if they don’t. I can’t wait to see which one. — Tyler Kepner

(Sasaki photo: The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images)