The Paris markets have properly called 24 of the last 28 American presidential elections. But there are 0 for 2 in the last two papal elections.
Robert Prevost was a 100-1 long shot in British sportsbooks last week to be the first American pope and successor to the late Pope Francis, who was 50-1 before his selection in 2013.
Prevost, born in Chicago and graduated from Villanova, amazed the betting industry on Thursday when he won the papal elections and took the name of Pope Leo XIV.
“The emergence of Robert Prevost was a major surprise for the betting industry, having attracted practically no attention to the market,” said Sam Eaton, director of the British country for Oddschecker, the largest Paris Kingdom aggregator. “In fact, only 1% of all bets on the following Pope were placed on Prévost. Last week, he was at the price of 100-1, shortening 66-1 briefly, but he remained in the long term.
“While a surprise choice was not out of the question – Jorge Mario Bergoglio was 50-1 before his selection – little expected that he was planned, in particular with so many other contenders overlooking the spotlights.”
Paris on the Pope are not allowed to American sports books. But two bettors on the prediction markets based in New York Kalshi and Polymarket won Big when Prevost was elected in the conclave inside the Sistine Chapel.
A kalshi bettor transformed a bet of $ 526 into $ 52,641 on Prévost at 100-1 dimensions, according to a position on X (@Kalshi).
A Polymarket bettor transformed a bet of $ 1,059.51 into $ 62,55.80 on Prévost at 59-1 dimensions, according to an article on X (@polymarket).
Kalshi and Polymarket are not traditional sports books. These are prediction markets where users can exchange the results of various events.
The Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Philippin Luis Antonio Tagle were the clear favorites to be the next pope since the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88.
In fact, when the white smoke emerged from the sixtine chapel chimney to signify that a new pope has been selected, Polymarket declared it a race of three men, giving the Paroline a chance of 62%, tagle a chance of 25%and the Italian cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa a chance of 8%.
“The new pope will be announced at any time now,” he said in an article on X. “It is between 2 Italians and a Philippin: Pietro Parolin, Luis Tagle and Pierbattista Pizzaballa.”
Prévost, who had less than 2% chance of Kalshi and Polymarket, was also a big shot on the offshore Betonline sports book.
Prévost did not appear on the Betonline Betting Board for the next Pope when it was published in 2022. It was added this month to the long list of candidates and fell from 16-1 Tuesday to 25-1 Wednesday and 40-1 Thursday before its elected official.
“The bets came regularly on a handful of papal candidates this week, but none of them was planned, so we continued to stick his chances,” said Betonline. “Each pope market we had was a winner for the book, so it’s a shame that it only happens every decades.”
The papal name, Leo, had the lowest fourth ratings in the table, at 8-1, behind Francis, Pius and John.
Prévost was elected Pope after four voting cycles. Betonline’s bettors lost on the exaggerated propeller for voting cyclists while they fell on 4½.
The bettors have also lost the age of the next pope on the age. More than 70 years was a popular choice, but the subsh at +150, because PREVOST is 69.
Contact journalist Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @ tdewey33 on X.
