Washington- As of mid-April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot as an independent presidential candidate in Utah and Michigan, although his campaign says it is working to get him on the ballot. the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Kennedy’s supporters insist he is not pursuing his bid for the White House simply to hand the election to another candidate. They say he’s the real deal and has a chance of winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
Running for office in enough states to get 270 votes — or a little more than half of the 538 Electoral College votes — is no small feat for a third-party candidate. But it’s possible.
“I think he has a very good chance of being on all 50 ballots,” said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University who studies third parties. “The short answer is I can’t say for sure that he will, but it looks like he’s on track to get there.”
David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature collection in seven other states besides Utah and Michigan: Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.
And yet, the campaign has yet to finalize paperwork and submit petitions in these states. He noted that he still has months left in most states to submit the paperwork, as the deadlines in most states aren’t until July or August.
The campaign says it is trying to avoid legal battles by timing the petitions well, saving signatures until the eleventh hour in the hopes that the signatures will face fewer challenges.
Kennedy has already encountered a Nevada paperwork snafu. In March, the campaign learned it would likely have to start the signature process again after failing to include a vice presidential candidate on the petition it had used to collect signatures in the state.
“After successfully gathering all the signatures we need in Nevada, the DNC Goon Squad and their lackeys at the Nevada Secretary of State’s office are now inventing a new requirement for the petition without any legal basis,” said Paul Rossi, a ballot access attorney for the Kennedy campaign. complained.
In addition to varying state regulations on ballot access and costly legal battles, Kennedy faces opposition from Democratic groups aiming to undermine third-party campaigns.
Earlier this year, the Democratic National Committee formed a team to challenge third-party and independent presidential candidates. The effort will depend on other groups like Third Way, MoveOn and a new super PAC, Clear Choice, backed by President Biden’s allies.
“Only two candidates have a path to 270 electoral votes: President Biden and Donald Trump,” said DNC spokesman Matt Corridoni. “The stakes are high and we know this will be a close election. That’s why a vote for a third-party candidate is a vote for Donald Trump.”
The Kennedy campaign said it planned to guarantee ballot access in all 50 states, rejecting suggestions that Kennedy would aim to help former President Donald Trump become president by taking votes from Mr. Biden.
“Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that. It’s a spoiler for President Biden and for President Trump,” Kennedy said in revealing his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, last month.
In some states, there are short deadlines for collecting signatures. Others provide that signature thresholds must be met in every county in a state. More than half of states require independent candidates to have a running mate.
Collecting enough signatures is not difficult in all states. Many require only 1,000 to 5,000 signatures, Tamas said. Louisiana requires no signature and a $500 fee. Other states have higher thresholds. Texas requires more than 113,000 signatures and Florida requires more than 145,000.
And that’s the number of valid signatures required. Any third-party applicant must exceed this goal to ensure they have enough in case some of the signatures prove invalid.
In states like Hawaii, where the Kennedy campaign claims to have collected enough signatures, it is more practical to run under a party affiliation rather than as an independent candidate. Kennedy supporters also collected signatures in California, Mississippi, North Carolina and Delaware to create the “We The People” party, which could then nominate Kennedy as its presidential candidate.
The Kennedy campaign says it aims to raise 60% above the signature threshold in every state.
“We have field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid communicators, supporters and strategists ready to do the work,” said campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear. “We exceed all our benchmarks and will announce new states every week.”
But Tamas believes Kennedy should aim higher, getting closer to double the required number of signatures.
“I’m surprised they’re saying it’s as low as 60, that you can’t take any chances,” Tamas said.
Collecting signatures is expensive. Kennedy’s super PAC estimates it will cost $40 million to $50 million just to collect all the necessary signatures, though Tamas pointed out that RFK Jr.’s running mate, Shanahan, the billionaire ex-wife of the co -founder of Google Sergey Brin, has the financial resources.
Collecting signatures isn’t the hard part: It’s the battle for signatures that is the real fight, Tamas said. The Democratic Party will fight hard to invalidate Kennedy’s signatures.
“You really have to prepare for a battle, so a lot of the cost is not actually getting the signatures, but rather the legal fees of fighting each state,” Tamas said.
Members of the Democratic Party are already trying to block Kennedy from running for office in Hawaii and Michigan.
Historically, independent candidates have gained access to the ballot in almost every state. In 1968, George Wallace, the former governor of Alabama, and in 1992, businessman Ross Perot were both on the ballot in all 50 states. Ralph Nader’s candidacy in 2000 expanded to 43 states.
Only Wallace managed to win electoral votes. Perot’s impressive 19 percent of the popular vote in 1992 did not translate to the Electoral College.
Former Perot campaign manager Russell Verney said third-party candidates face more hurdles today than in the past.
“Every time an independent candidate has reasonable success, state legislatures, made up of Republicans and Democrats, who by definition don’t like competition, increase state barriers to entry into office,” Verney said. “The requirements for participating in these state ballots continue to become more and more onerous with each election cycle.”
But “someone in RFK’s position, I don’t think the Democrats are going to stop him,” Tamas said. “I think it will be there, if not on all, at least probably on most of the ballots.”
A successful third-party candidate must focus on individuals who aren’t represented by the major parties, Tamas said, and that’s a problem for Kennedy.
“He’s everywhere, and it’s really unclear what the disgruntled group he’s trying to tap into is,” Tamas said. “He relies on conspiracy theories, that’s part of it. But if someone is a conspiracy theorist, there’s a good chance they support Donald Trump.”
At this point, if Kennedy’s petitions were validated in all the states where his website indicates signature collection is complete – Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire – plus Louisiana, which , as noted, does not. is not subject to a signature requirement, and in the two states where it is on the ballot, it could win 73 electoral votes. Add in the three states where his super PAC says it has the signatures, and that’s another 36, putting him at 109.
The latest YouGov/Economist national poll shows Mr Biden and Trump tied at 44% and Kennedy at 3%.
Support for Kennedy is expected to decline before November, Tamas predicted.
But it is not yet clear whether Mr. Biden or Trump stands to lose more from Kennedy’s presidential bid.
“No one really knows for sure whose votes they’re going to take,” Tamas said.
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