Relief as Hezbollah and Israel appear to be moving back from the brink

For nearly a month, many Lebanese have been anxiously awaiting a Hezbollah response against Israel. The region is also waiting anxiously, wondering whether this will trigger a wider war.

Everyone knew that the powerful Iran-backed group would seek revenge for Israel’s July 30 assassination of a senior military commander, Fuad Shukr. The Israelis managed to track him down deep in Hezbollah’s stronghold, south of Beirut. It was both a strategic loss and a public humiliation.

Hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, in a move that had all the hallmarks of another Israeli operation. But Iran continues to signal that its retaliation may be a long-term plan.

At 5:15 a.m. on Sunday, Hezbollah launched more than 300 Katyusha rockets and “a large number of drones” across the border into Israel. It was cold-blooded revenge. It was carefully calibrated, and it was smaller than some expected.

Hezbollah said it targeted 11 military bases and barracks and claimed its attack was a success. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said most of the rockets missed their targets.

In any case, Hezbollah did not target Israel’s major cities or critical infrastructure. And it did not bring out its big guns. The group, listed as a terrorist organization by the United Kingdom and the United States, is said to have more weapons than many countries.

Israel was the first to attack, at 04:30, bombing the skies with its warplanes targeting Hezbollah firing positions. The Israeli army said that this “preemptive strike” destroyed thousands of rocket launchers.

It is the biggest outbreak of violence since the Gaza war began last October, after Hamas killed 1,200 people in Israel in a single day.

Since then, Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israel across their shared border, showing support for its ally Hamas and proclaiming solidarity with the people of Gaza.

So where are we today? Surprisingly, the Middle East may be a little safer.

Both sides sent a message, but without going as far as open war. Hezbollah, for its part, made it clear that it was ready to close the Fuad Shukr chapter – for now.

“We reserve the right to continue the response later, but for now, people can rest easy and continue with their lives,” said Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

After a tense month, it was a welcome message for many here.

He was addressing his supporters on television from an undisclosed location. He could be at the top of Israel’s assassination list.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday’s strikes against Hezbollah were “not the end of the story.”

But diplomats told Reuters news agency that the two sides had exchanged messages saying they did not want further escalation.

Here in southern Lebanon, we are already seeing a return to the usual low-intensity conflict.

Israel has just attempted a new assassination, leaving a burning car in the scorching streets of Sidon, a port city. According to local sources, the target was a Hamas leader, who managed to escape in time.

Along the coast, in the city of Tyre, Israeli fighter jets fly low, breaking the sound barrier – but the beach below is busier.

“Everything seems calm today,” said a young man in his twenties who wished to remain anonymous.

“Everything is back to normal. The streets are quiet, but people are back. Today, people can breathe.”

Hezbollah said it had delayed its retaliation to allow time for ceasefire talks in Gaza. But the latest round of negotiations in Egypt ended with no apparent progress.

As the war in Gaza continues, in all its horror, it is fueling instability across the Middle East.