RBA September meeting minutes: considers 25 basis point rate hike or alternatives on hold

Minutes of the September 2023 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

• Considers raising rates by 25 basis points or holding them steady at September meeting

• Further tightening may be necessary if inflation proves more persistent than expected
• The case for remaining was stronger as recent data did not materially change the economic outlook
• The economy still appears to be on a narrow path to inflation returning to target and employment growth
• Members recognize the benefit of allowing more time to fully see the effects of past tightening on the economy.
• Policy decisions will be guided by incoming data and risk assessment
• Concerns that productivity growth is not accelerating as expected and services inflation remains persistent
• Fuel prices rose sharply in August, which could boost overall inflation in the third quarter
• MEPs noted that the labor market remains tight, but could be at a turning point.
• Expected mortgage payments hit an all-time high of 9.7% of household income in July, and are expected to rise further

Headlines via Reuters

These two points:

• Fuel prices rose sharply in August, which could boost overall inflation in the third quarter
• Expected mortgage payments hit an all-time high of 9.7% of household income in July, and are expected to rise further

are interesting. Yes, the overall inflation rate will be boosted by rising fuel prices. The increase continued until September. And discretionary spending is being reduced in response to rising mortgage payments. Putting these two elements together, the outlook for consumption looks dire and risks weighing on economic growth.

The full text is here:

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Context here:

Economic calendar in Asia, Tuesday September 19, 2023 – Minutes of the September RBA meeting

Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting minutes available soon – preview