Russia’s immigration crackdown could end up dealing another blow to its economy, with the country already suffering a severe shortage of workers.
The Kremlin announced it would tighten restrictions on migrants entering Russia, after a terrorist attack at a concert in Moscow killed more than 140 people and injured more than 100. Russian authorities said some of the attackers had expired immigration papers, Bloomberg reported. Monday.
Lawmakers are now pushing to pass new rules requiring migrants to register a digital profile with biometric data in order to work in Russia. The country, meanwhile, has seen a surge in deportations, with courts in St. Petersburg ordering 466 migrants to leave Russia since the attack, according to a report by independent Russian media outlet Meduza.
These measures could ultimately harm the Russian economy, which suffers from a serious shortage of available labor. The country’s working population was short of nearly 5 million people by the end of 2023, according to an estimate by Russian newspaper Izvestia.
Russia has likely become more dependent on migrant workers since its invasion of Ukraine, which led to nearly a million of its own citizens fleeing the country in 2022. The country now has between 3.5 and 5 million workers migrants, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates, but only 1.7 million are recorded in official statistics.
Economists have warned of the long-term consequences of Russia’s labor shortage, which could further damage the country’s growth prospects as it enters its second year of war. Losing just 300,000 more workers could reduce the country’s GDP by 0.2% over the next year, Bloomberg estimated, which could also fuel inflation and keep interest rates high for longer.
These consequences demonstrate the many ways in which Russia has paid the price for its invasion of Ukraine, both in the present and in the future. Although military spending has supported the Russian economy in the short term, it cannot last forever, European researchers recently warned, predicting a much slower growth trajectory for Moscow in 2024.
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