Putin escapes arrest warrant in Mongolia, Kremlin touts triumph

The Kremlin displayed a degree of self-satisfaction on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to Mongolia earlier this week went off without a hitch, despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over the visit.

Putin was given the red carpet treatment, meeting with his Mongolian counterpart and discussing trade ties and bilateral relations with a country he knows needs his investment and will not back down from his invasion of Ukraine.

But the real advantage for the Kremlin is that its leader has not been arrested.

As a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Mongolia had a duty to arrest and detain Putin upon his arrival on Mongolian soil on Monday evening. Since March 2023, he has been the subject of an international arrest warrant from the ICC for war crimes related to the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

The Kremlin says it does not recognize the ICC arrest warrant, and in the event of a state visit by Putin to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia has chosen to ignore its obligations to arrest Putin, landing itself in hot water with the court, Ukraine and its European allies, who have sharply criticized the decision.

Buoyed by the success of the trip, during which Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh signed agreements on energy and oil supplies, the reconstruction of a power plant and environmental protection, the Kremlin said institutions like the ICC would not be able to restrict Russia’s relations with the “world majority.”

“This whole story with the ICC (…) cannot and will not be a limitation in the development of Russia’s relations with partner states that are interested in developing bilateral relations and covering international contacts,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to comments translated on Google and relayed by the Russian news agency Tass.

“The world majority has a much broader vision of the prospects for international cooperation than the blinkers of the ICC,” he added.

Peskov concluded that there was “great interest in the country from the world majority.”

“And we are also interested,” he said.

Economically vulnerable Mongolia faces a stark choice, analysts say: whether to comply with the ICC ruling or strengthen ties with its powerful neighbor Russia, on which it relies heavily for oil and gas supplies. Mongolia is also on the route of a gas pipeline project linking its major trading partners and neighbors, Russia and China.

Heavily sanctioned by the West for its ongoing war against Ukraine, Russia is looking for a way to undermine global and Western institutions. Its trip to Mongolia is another way to do so.

Elena Davlikanova, a democracy researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said in an analysis Monday that Mongolia’s choice not to comply with its obligations to the ICC “is the clearest possible demonstration of Western impotence in the face of Kremlin realpolitik.”

“This will delight Putin, who has complete contempt for rules-based policies. Russia’s approach is to win by any means necessary, no matter the consequences. The West and the institutions it helped build lack the same focus or determination,” she added.

CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin and the Mongolian government for further comment.

A Mongolian government spokesman told the Politico news website on Tuesday that the country’s energy dependence on Russia puts it in a difficult position in its relations with Moscow.

“Mongolia imports 95 percent of its oil products and more than 20 percent of its electricity from our immediate neighborhood, which has already experienced interruptions for technical reasons. This supply is essential to ensure our existence and that of our people,” the spokesperson said.