Categories: sports

PSG vs inter: final prediction of the Champions League of the Opta SuperCalculator

It is time for the grand finale. As PSG And
Between
Prepare to compete in Munich, we are waiting for the future of the huge match on Saturday with our prediction and the final overview of the UEFA Champions League.


PSG vs inter-static: key ideas

  • Paris Saint-Germain is the favorite to win the UEFA Champions League for the first time in their history, the OPTA supercomputer giving them a probability of 56.6% lifting of the trophy.
  • This is the very first competitive meeting between PSG and Inter, and is only the second final of the European Cup / Champions League between a French and Italian team.
  • While PSG appears during its second final of the European Cup / Champions League, this is the seventh appearance of Inter in the master match.

The eyes of the football world will be on the Allianz arena in Munich on Saturday as Paris Saint-Germain And Inter Milan Go face to face for European glory.

The two have been finalist in the Champions League in the past five years: PSG has lost against Bayern Munich in 2020, while Inter was beaten by Manchester City in 2023.

Many hoped for a strong one -minute confrontation between PSG and
BarcelonaBut this meeting always promises to be a thriller given the role that Inter played in their fascinating semi-final with the Hansi Flick team.

PSG was undoubtedly the best interpreters in Europe this season. Luis Enrique’s team is looking for a triple, having won the
Ligue 1
Title while they also claimed the Coupé de France last weekend.

Teams in the best five European leagues, only Barcelona (174) scored more goals in all competitions than PSG (147), and it is only the blaugrana which can boast of a higher Expected objectives (XG) Imagine during the 2024-25 campaign (145.3 to 142.5 from PSG).

PSG at the top of the graphics for shots (1,074), target shots (450) and the big chance (280), while Manchester City (2,239) is the only team to have had more touches in the opposition box than Parisians (2,207).

Luis Enrique won the Guardiola Champion League (Barcelona and Man City).

Indeed, this success with Barça a decade ago was part of a hat -trick, and Luis Enrique could become just the second coach, after Guardiola, to win a triple composed of the Champions League, a large domestic trophy and a League title, with two different teams.

A good omen for PSG? When their Spanish coach won the triples 10 years ago, his Barça team beat an Italian team (Juventus) in the final.

This season has seen PSG win their greatest number of games (10) and mark their most (33) goals in a single major European campaign, although there are more games in the competition since its overhaul, PSG having had to compete in a Knockout on two legs against Brest following a slightly jumped wrapping league phase.

They also recorded their most out of match (18.6) shots during a Champions League season since 2003-04, when OPTA began to record this data.

But as they proved in their fascinating victory in the semi-finals on Barça, the Inter are not pushes.

Simone Inzaghi may have left the obstacles in these two legs against their Liga opponents, but the success of Inter in the Champions League, this term was largely built on solid foundations. They kept eight clean leaves, more than any other team, conceding only 11 goals (including one-purpose one), six of which fell on this two-legged semi-final.

Part of their defensive solidity was the performance of the goalkeeper Yann Sommer.

Depending on the quality of the shots on the face target (using xgot), Sommer prevented more goals than any other goalkeeper in the Champions League this season (+5.9 to 10 goals conceded from 15.9 xg to the target, excluding the own goals).

Sommer opens the way in the Champions League this goalkeeper season for clean leaves (seven). Only Thibaut Courtois (52) and Emiliano Martínez (49) recorded more backups in the competition this season than the international in Switzerland (48).

The reliability of the goalkeeper was certainly a crucial factor for the Inter, which conceded a summit of 214 shots of the tournament. That said, their 17.3 objectives expected against show them that they abandon, overall, low -quality opportunities. Indeed, the average XG shots with which the Inter was confronted is only 0.08.

Before Summer, veteran activist Francesco Acerbi has played his role more than.

Acerbi-Who Scored Inter’s Crucial Late Equalizing In The Semi-final Against Barcelona-Could Be the Foundth-Outfield Player to Start A Champions League Final (37 Years, 110 Days), Behind Paolo Maldini for Milan in 2007 (38 years, 331 Days), Lothar Matthew For Bayern in 1999 (38 years, 66 days) and Ryan Giggs for Manchester United in 2011 (37 years, 180 days).

Then there are flying wings Denzel Dumfrieswhich was directly involved in five goals through the semi-final legs against Barça (two goals, three assists), as many goal contributions as in its 51 previous appearances in Europe.

The experience was essential for Inzaghi. Only Atlético Madrid (43.5%) gave a higher share of minutes to players aged 30 and over in the Champions League this season than Inter (43.3%), including 6,151 collective minutes by players aged 30 and over are the most by a team since Juventus in 2016-2017 (6186). Every 1,350 minutes of PSG gave players aged 30 or over were recorded by a single player: Marquinhos.

It certainly worked for the Serie A side. Inter dragged for only 1.2% of its champions League games this season, delay in just three games, but never more than 370 seconds in any of them – 285 seconds against Bayer Leverkusen, 370 against Le Bayern and 343 against Barcelona. They also spent the highest percentage of their time to save (50.8%).

Not that it was a question of defense and grinding of results.

Inter scored 26 goals in the Champions League this season; The most common in a major European season, also marking 26 in 2002-2003.

They scored two or more goals in the six games with direct elimination and could be the third side to score 2+ goals in each direct elimination match, including the final of a season, with Real Madrid in 1959-1960 (seven games) and Milan in 1993-1994 (two games).

Two of the European -shaped attackers will be linked to steal the headlines.

It was an incredible campaign for Ousmane Dembéléwhich was directly involved in 12 goals in the Champions League this season (eight goals, four assists); The most by a PSG player in a single season, while only Zlatan Ibrahimović in 2013-14 (10) scored more times in a single edition of the competition.

Lautaro MartínezAs for him, marked in the last 16, quarter-final and semi-finals. Only five players scored in these stages plus the final in a season-Frank Lampard in 2007-08, Diego Milito in 2009-10, Lionel Messi in 2010-11, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 and Sadio Mané in 2017-18.

The Argentinian also aims to become the first Inter player to score 10 goals in a big European season, needing only one to do so.

It will only be the second final of the European Cup / Champions League between an Italian and French team, after Marseille beat Milan 1-0 in 1993. This remains the only time a French team has ever won the trophy. By the way, this final also took place in Munich.

In fact, it will be the fifth final of the European Cup / Champions League to be held in Munich. The winners of each of the previous four won the trophy for the very first time, a PSG race seeks to continue (Forest de Nottingham in 1979, Marseille in 1993, Dortmund in 1997, Chelsea in 2012). However, French clubs only won two of their 15 major European finals.

PSG vs inter-tête

Regarding experience in the main European finals, Inter – which finished second in Serie has this term – has a clear edge.

It is the seventh appearance of Inter in the final of the European Cup / Champions League, winning the trophy three times (1964, 1965 and 2010). They lost their last final appearance, lowering 1-0 against Man City in 2023, when the Guardiola team won the triple.

This is the second appearance of PSG in the European Cup final / Champions League. They remain the last French team to win a large European trophy – the Cup of the Winners of the UEFA Cup 1995-1996.

PSG has played the fourth games (167) without ever winning the European Cup / the Champions League since it started in 1955, behind Arsenal (211), Dynamo kyiv (185) and Atlético Madrid (176). A victory in this match would see them having the most games before winning their first trophy, with Man City most current out of 116 before winning his 117th match in the final against Inter in 2023.

It is therefore somewhat surprising that it is the very first competitive meeting between Inter and PSG. This final also marks the first meeting between Luis Enrique and Simone Inzaghi.

The two coaches supervised 32 games in the Champions League during their careers, Luis Enrique winning 20 games and Inzaghi won 17 victories.

PSG vs inter: final prediction of the Champions League

Inter has been undefeated in their last four games against French opponents in Europe (W2 D2) since a 1-0 defeat against Marseille in the 2011-12 Champions League.

But the OPTA supercomputer does not support them to continue this race.

PSG came out in the lead in 44.6% of the 10,000 simulations led by pre-match data in 90 minutes, while Inter did in 29%. The game goes to the extension and potentially penalties in the remaining 26.4% of the Sims.

Overall, PSG is the favorite to win the trophy according to our model, which classifies their chances at 56.6% for 43.4% Inter.

PSG vs inter:: Planned alignments

Opta feeding classification

THE Opta feeding classification are a global team classification system. They attribute a capacity score to more than 13,000 national football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where Zero is the least classified team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Before Saturday kick -off, here is the Power Opta ranking for both sides.


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